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MatchDaySync

Leiston v Stamford, Southern Football League, Premier Division Central, Sat, 5 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 22. Sat, 5 Dec 2026

LeistonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
StamfordAway
LWLLDLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Leiston have 4 scored home results and Stamford 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Leiston at home: 1.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Stamford away: 0.00 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Leiston scored 1.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Stamford scored 0.33 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.43 per club appearance across 222 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 10 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 111 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Leiston
3.76
Expected goals, Stamford
0.31
Most likely score
3-0 (16%)
Three or more goals
76%
Both clubs score
26%
Leiston score at least once
98%
Stamford score at least once
27%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Leiston win–
Draw–
Stamford win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Leiston goals, columns are Stamford goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
17%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
213%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
316%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
415%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
511%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
67%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
74%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.62 goals) and away average (1.24 goals).

Sample. Leiston 10 matches, Stamford 10, the league 111, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 26 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 111 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.577.0%23.0%
2.553.1%46.9%
3.533.6%66.4%
4.518.6%81.4%

First-half goals · 111 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.577.9%22.1%
1.538.1%61.9%
2.514.2%85.8%
3.55.3%94.7%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Leiston at homeLWLWLW
Stamford awayLLLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Leiston at home, Stamford away
  • 46%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    4 + 6 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    4 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 6 matches
  • 71%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    4 + 6 matches
  • 58%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 33%
    4 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    4 + 6 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.86
    4 + 6 matches
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 78%
    4 + 6 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 38%
    4 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Leiston at home, Stamford away
Leiston (home)Stamford (away)
13Position22
WLWLLast 5, oldest to newestLLLLL
4Played6
1.50Points per match0.00
50%Win %0%
1.75Scored / match0.33
1.50Conceded / match3.17
3.25Avg total goals3.50
75%Both scored17%
0%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score83%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

LeistonStamford
  • 1.501st half scored / match0.17
  • 0.501st half conceded / match1.67
  • 0.252nd half scored / match0.17
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match1.50
  • 50%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 75%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 25%Scored in both halves17%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Leiston at home, Stamford away, this season.

Goals

LeistonStamford
  • 1.75Scored / match0.33
  • 1.50Conceded / match3.17
  • 3.25Match total / match3.50
  • 75%Scored 1+17%
  • 50%Scored 2+17%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+83%
  • 100%Match over 1.583%
  • 75%Match over 2.567%
  • 50%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
11Halesowen Town8013
12Stourbridge10-213
13Leiston10012
14Racing Club Warwick11-311
15Bishop's Stortford10-510
20Hitchin Town11-107
21Leighton Town10-95
22Stamford10-250
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Southern Football League, Premier Division Central matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.