Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Leverkusen v Paderborn, Bundesliga, Sat, 21 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 10. Sat, 21 Nov 2026

LeverkusenHome
vKick-off 14:30 UTC
PaderbornAway
LWDWWLeague form, oldest to newestDLLWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

BayArena. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Leverkusen have 2 scored home results and Paderborn 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Leverkusen at home: 3.00 points per match (2 measured matches); Paderborn away: 0.50 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Leverkusen scored 3.00 per home match (2 measured matches); Paderborn scored 0.00 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.93 per club appearance across 86 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 0 of 4 pooled club appearances (0.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Leverkusen: 2 wins; Paderborn: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Leverkusen at home and Paderborn away.

Leverkusen at home

xG 2.69
  • Shots per match19.5
  • On target per match8.0
  • Goals per match3.0

Paderborn away

xG 0.61
  • Shots per match10.0
  • On target per match0.0
  • Goals per match0.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 43 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Leverkusen
2.50
Expected goals, Paderborn
0.38
Most likely score
2-0 (18%)
Three or more goals
55%
Both clubs score
29%
Leverkusen score at least once
92%
Paderborn score at least once
32%
Season sample
5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Leverkusen win–
Draw–
Paderborn win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Leverkusen goals, columns are Paderborn goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
218%7%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
315%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
49%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
55%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
62%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
71%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (2.37 goals) and away average (1.49 goals).

Sample. Leverkusen 5 matches, Paderborn 5, the league 43, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 43 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.584.4%15.6%
2.575.6%24.4%
3.562.2%37.8%
4.542.2%57.8%

First-half goals · 43 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.584.4%15.6%
1.540.0%60.0%
2.517.8%82.2%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Leverkusen wins
0
Draws
0
Paderborn wins
Goals / meeting
5.00
10 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Leverkusen clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Paderborn clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
11.00
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
3.50
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Paderborn v LeverkusenSun, 19 Jan 2020 · Bundesliga 2019-201–4HT 0–3
  2. Leverkusen v PaderbornSat, 17 Aug 2019 · Bundesliga 2019-203–2HT 2–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Leverkusen at homeLWDWWW
Paderborn awayDLWWDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Leverkusen at home, Paderborn away
  • 0%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 86%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 77%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 63%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 42%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.3
    Avg total goals
    League 3.86
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 86%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 12.5
    Corners per match
    League 10.86
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 75%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 61%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.5
    Cards per match
    League 3.67
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 22%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Leverkusen at home, Paderborn away
Leverkusen (home)Paderborn (away)
4Position15
WWLast 5, oldest to newestDL
2Played2
3.00Points per match0.50
100%Win %0%
3.00Scored / match0.00
0.00Conceded / match1.50
3.00Avg total goals1.50
0%Both scored0%
100%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score100%
2.69xG for0.61
0.69xG against1.50

Half by half

LeverkusenPaderborn
  • 1.501st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.50
  • 1.502nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 100%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 50%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 100%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Leverkusen at home, Paderborn away, this season.

Goals

LeverkusenPaderborn
  • 3.00Scored / match0.00
  • 0.00Conceded / match1.50
  • 3.00Match total / match1.50
  • 100%Scored 1+0%
  • 100%Scored 2+0%
  • 0%Conceded 1+50%
  • 0%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.550%
  • 50%Match over 2.550%
  • 50%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

LeverkusenPaderborn
  • 19.50Shots for10.00
  • 8.50Shots against17.50
  • 8.00On target for0.00
  • 1.50On target against6.00
  • 15%Shot conversion0%
  • 2.69xG for0.61
  • 0.69xG against1.50

Corners

LeverkusenPaderborn
  • 10.00Corners for2.50
  • 3.50Corners against9.00
  • 13.50Match total11.50
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.5100%
  • 100%Over 9.5100%
  • 100%Over 10.550%
  • 100%Over 11.550%

Cards

LeverkusenPaderborn
  • 2.00Cards for1.50
  • 2.50Cards against1.00
  • 4.50Match total2.50
  • 100%Over 2.550%
  • 100%Over 3.50%
  • 50%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 12.50Fouls committed8.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Bayern Munich51211
3Freiburg4910
4Leverkusen5610
5RB Leipzig5109
6Augsburg558
13Ein Frankfurt5-75
14FC Koln4-34
15Paderborn5-44
16Union Berlin5-124
17Hoffenheim5-43
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Bundesliga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.