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Libertad v Sportivo Luqueño, Primera División, Thu, 29 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 16. Thu, 29 Oct 2026

LibertadHome
vKick-off 22:00 UTC
Sportivo LuqueñoAway
WWDLWLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Libertad have 6 scored home results and Sportivo Luqueño 7 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Libertad at home: 2.17 points per match (6 measured matches); Sportivo Luqueño away: 1.00 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Libertad scored 2.00 per home match (6 measured matches); Sportivo Luqueño scored 1.14 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.26 per club appearance across 156 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 13 pooled club appearances (53.8%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 3. Libertad: 3 wins; Sportivo Luqueño: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 78 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Libertad
2.56
Expected goals, Sportivo Luqueño
0.83
Most likely score
2-0 (11%)
Three or more goals
66%
Both clubs score
52%
Libertad score at least once
92%
Sportivo Luqueño score at least once
56%
Season sample
13 and 14 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Libertad win–
Draw–
Sportivo Luqueño win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Libertad goals, columns are Sportivo Luqueño goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.29 goals) and away average (1.22 goals).

Sample. Libertad 13 matches, Sportivo Luqueño 14, the league 78, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 9 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 78 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.3%23.8%
2.551.2%48.8%
3.518.8%81.3%
4.510.0%90.0%

First-half goals · 78 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.572.5%27.5%
1.531.3%68.8%
2.55.0%95.0%
3.51.3%98.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

3 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Libertad wins
0
Draws
0
Sportivo Luqueño wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
9 goals in 3 meetings
Both scored
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 1.5
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 2.5
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 3.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Libertad clean sheets
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Sportivo Luqueño clean sheets
0%
0 of 3 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Sportivo Luqueño v LibertadSun, 16 Aug 2026 · Primera División 20261–2HT 1–1
  2. Sportivo Luqueño v LibertadMon, 11 May 2026 · Primera División, Apertura 20262–3HT 1–1
  3. Libertad v Sportivo LuqueñoSat, 7 Mar 2026 · Primera División, Apertura 20261–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Libertad at homeWWWWDL
Sportivo Luqueño awayWLDLDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Libertad at home, Sportivo Luqueño away
  • 55%
    Both teams scored
    League 56%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 61%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 51%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 31%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 18%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 24%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.51
    6 + 7 matches
  • 76%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 46%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    6 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Libertad at home, Sportivo Luqueño away
Libertad (home)Sportivo Luqueño (away)
2Position9
WWWDLLast 5, oldest to newestWLDLL
6Played7
2.17Points per match1.00
67%Win %29%
2.00Scored / match1.14
1.00Conceded / match2.00
3.00Avg total goals3.14
67%Both scored43%
17%Clean sheets14%
17%Failed to score43%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

LibertadSportivo Luqueño
  • 0.671st half scored / match0.43
  • 0.671st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.332nd half scored / match0.71
  • 0.332nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 17%Leading at half-time29%
  • 67%1st half over 0.586%
  • 50%1st half over 1.543%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.543%
  • 50%Scored in both halves43%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Libertad at home, Sportivo Luqueño away, this season.

Goals

LibertadSportivo Luqueño
  • 2.00Scored / match1.14
  • 1.00Conceded / match2.00
  • 3.00Match total / match3.14
  • 83%Scored 1+57%
  • 50%Scored 2+57%
  • 83%Conceded 1+86%
  • 17%Conceded 2+71%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.571%
  • 33%Match over 3.529%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primera División matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.