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Lille v Lens, Ligue 1, Fri, 30 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 9. Fri, 30 Oct 2026

LilleHome
vKick-off 20:05 UTC
LensAway
DWWLWLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Pierre Mauroy Stadium. Photo: Felouch Kotek, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Lille have 3 scored home results and Lens 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Lille at home: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Lens away: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Lille scored 1.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Lens scored 1.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 102 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 6 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Lille: 5 wins; Lens: 3 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Lille at home and Lens away.

Lille at home

xG 1.42
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match1.7

Lens away

xG 1.85
  • Shots per match15.0
  • On target per match5.7
  • Goals per match1.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 51 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Lille
1.98
Expected goals, Lens
0.73
Most likely score
1-0 (13%)
Three or more goals
51%
Both clubs score
45%
Lille score at least once
86%
Lens score at least once
52%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Lille win–
Draw–
Lens win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Lille goals, columns are Lens goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
113%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
213%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.65 goals) and away average (1.24 goals).

Sample. Lille 6 matches, Lens 6, the league 51, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 51 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.5%24.5%
2.560.4%39.6%
3.535.8%64.2%
4.513.2%86.8%

First-half goals · 51 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.8%30.2%
1.534.0%66.0%
2.515.1%84.9%
3.53.8%96.2%

Corners · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.563.8%36.2%
9.555.3%44.7%
10.540.4%59.6%

Yellow + red card events · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.585.1%14.9%
2.561.7%38.3%
3.546.8%53.2%
4.525.5%74.5%
5.510.6%89.4%
6.52.1%97.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Lille wins
2
Draws
3
Lens wins
Goals / meeting
2.10
21 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Lille clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Lens clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.50
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.60
10 with card data
  1. Lille v LensSat, 4 Apr 2026 · Ligue 1 2025-263–0HT 1–0
  2. Lens v LilleSat, 20 Sept 2025 · Ligue 1 2025-263–0HT 2–0
  3. Lille v LensSun, 30 Mar 2025 · Ligue 1 2024-251–0HT 1–0
  4. Lens v LilleSat, 26 Oct 2024 · Ligue 1 2024-250–2HT 0–0
  5. Lille v LensFri, 29 Mar 2024 · Ligue 1 2023-242–1HT 1–0
  6. Lens v LilleSun, 8 Oct 2023 · Ligue 1 2023-241–1HT 0–1
  7. Lens v LilleSat, 4 Mar 2023 · Ligue 1 2022-231–1HT 1–0
  8. Lille v LensSun, 9 Oct 2022 · Ligue 1 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  9. Lille v LensSat, 16 Apr 2022 · Ligue 1 2021-221–2HT 1–2
  10. Lens v LilleSat, 18 Sept 2021 · Ligue 1 2021-221–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Lille at homeDLDLWW
Lens awayLWLDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Lille at home, Lens away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 35%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 8.2
    Corners per match
    League 9.62
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 56%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 40%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 2.8
    Cards per match
    League 3.27
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 47%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Lille at home, Lens away
Lille (home)Lens (away)
2Position9
DWWLast 5, oldest to newestLDL
3Played3
2.33Points per match0.33
67%Win %0%
1.67Scored / match1.33
0.67Conceded / match2.00
2.33Avg total goals3.33
33%Both scored100%
67%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score0%
1.42xG for1.85
0.94xG against1.89

Half by half

LilleLens
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 100%Leading at half-time33%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 67%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Lille at home, Lens away, this season.

Goals

LilleLens
  • 1.67Scored / match1.33
  • 0.67Conceded / match2.00
  • 2.33Match total / match3.33
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 67%Scored 2+33%
  • 33%Conceded 1+100%
  • 33%Conceded 2+100%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.5100%
  • 33%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

LilleLens
  • 11.00Shots for15.00
  • 13.00Shots against12.67
  • 5.00On target for5.67
  • 2.50On target against6.00
  • 18%Shot conversion9%
  • 1.42xG for1.85
  • 0.94xG against1.89

Corners

LilleLens
  • 1.00Corners for7.67
  • 5.00Corners against2.67
  • 6.00Match total10.33
  • 0%Over 7.5100%
  • 0%Over 8.5100%
  • 0%Over 9.567%
  • 0%Over 10.533%
  • 0%Over 11.533%

Cards

LilleLens
  • 1.50Cards for2.00
  • 0.50Cards against1.67
  • 2.00Match total3.67
  • 50%Over 2.567%
  • 0%Over 3.567%
  • 0%Over 4.533%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 11.00Fouls committed11.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Monaco6514
2Lille6513
3Lyon6711
4Paris FC6411
7Brest638
8Lorient608
9Lens617
10Strasbourg507
11Angers6-37
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Ligue 1 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.