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Luzern v FC Lugano, Swiss Super League, Sun, 29 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 15. Sun, 29 Nov 2026

LuzernHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
FC LuganoAway
WDLWLLeague form, oldest to newestWDWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Luzern have 7 scored home results and FC Lugano 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Luzern at home: 1.71 points per match (7 measured matches); FC Lugano away: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Luzern scored 2.00 per home match (7 measured matches); FC Lugano scored 3.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.97 per club appearance across 186 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 9 of 11 pooled club appearances (81.8%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Luzern: 0 wins; FC Lugano: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 93 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Luzern
0.56
Expected goals, FC Lugano
3.49
Most likely score
0-3 (13%)
Three or more goals
76%
Both clubs score
41%
Luzern score at least once
43%
FC Lugano score at least once
97%
Season sample
14 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Luzern win–
Draw–
FC Lugano win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Luzern goals, columns are FC Lugano goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%6%11%13%11%8%4%2%
11%3%6%7%6%4%3%1%
2under 1%1%2%2%2%1%1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.97 goals) and away average (1.97 goals).

Sample. Luzern 14 matches, FC Lugano 10, the league 93, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 9 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 93 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.588.4%11.6%
2.580.0%20.0%
3.556.8%43.2%
4.538.9%61.1%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.581.4%18.6%
1.549.2%50.8%
2.523.7%76.3%
3.58.5%91.5%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Luzern wins
0
Draws
1
FC Lugano wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
4 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Luzern clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
FC Lugano clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. FC Lugano v LuzernSat, 10 Oct 2026 · Swiss Super League 2026-274–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Luzern at homeLWWWLW
FC Lugano awayDWDWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Luzern at home, FC Lugano away
  • 80%
    Both teams scored
    League 72%
    7 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 98%
    7 + 4 matches
  • 93%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 89%
    7 + 4 matches
  • 93%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 81%
    7 + 4 matches
  • 66%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 57%
    7 + 4 matches
  • 27%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 39%
    7 + 4 matches
  • 3.9
    Avg total goals
    League 3.94
    7 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 82%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 49%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Luzern at home, FC Lugano away
Luzern (home)FC Lugano (away)
9Position2
WWWLWLast 5, oldest to newestWWWW
7Played4
1.71Points per match3.00
57%Win %100%
2.00Scored / match3.25
1.86Conceded / match0.75
3.86Avg total goals4.00
86%Both scored75%
14%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

LuzernFC Lugano
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.25
  • 1.202nd half scored / match2.75
  • 1.202nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 40%Leading at half-time50%
  • 80%1st half over 0.575%
  • 60%1st half over 1.50%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 80%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 40%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Luzern at home, FC Lugano away, this season.

Goals

LuzernFC Lugano
  • 2.00Scored / match3.25
  • 1.86Conceded / match0.75
  • 3.86Match total / match4.00
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 57%Scored 2+100%
  • 86%Conceded 1+75%
  • 43%Conceded 2+0%
  • 86%Match over 1.5100%
  • 86%Match over 2.5100%
  • 57%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Young Boys132329
2FC Lugano102428
3Lugano92025
4Sion9919
7Servette13016
8Basel13-316
9Luzern14-916
10Grasshoppers14-1714
11St. Gallen9-313
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Swiss Super League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.