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MatchDaySync

Man City v Brighton, Premier League, Sat, 31 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 9. Sat, 31 Oct 2026

Man CityHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
BrightonAway
WWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestLDWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Etihad Stadium. Photo: Arne Müseler , cropped by Blackcat / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Man City have 3 scored home results and Brighton 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Man City at home: 3.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Brighton away: 2.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Man City scored 2.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Brighton scored 3.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 6 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Man City: 5 wins; Brighton: 2 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Man City at home and Brighton away.

Man City at home

xG 2.43
  • Shots per match14.7
  • On target per match5.3
  • Goals per match2.7

Brighton away

xG 2.10
  • Shots per match18.5
  • On target per match6.5
  • Goals per match3.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Man City
1.65
Expected goals, Brighton
1.89
Most likely score
1-1 (9%)
Three or more goals
69%
Both clubs score
69%
Man City score at least once
81%
Brighton score at least once
85%
Season sample
5 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Man City win–
Draw–
Brighton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Man City goals, columns are Brighton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%5%5%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%
15%9%9%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
24%7%7%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
32%4%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Man City 5 matches, Brighton 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Man City wins
3
Draws
2
Brighton wins
Goals / meeting
3.30
33 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
10 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Man City clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Brighton clean sheets
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
7.80
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.60
10 with card data
  1. Man City v BrightonWed, 7 Jan 2026 · Premier League 2025-261–1HT 1–0
  2. Brighton v Man CitySun, 31 Aug 2025 · Premier League 2025-262–1HT 0–1
  3. Man City v BrightonSat, 15 Mar 2025 · Premier League 2024-252–2HT 2–1
  4. Brighton v Man CitySat, 9 Nov 2024 · Premier League 2024-252–1HT 0–1
  5. Brighton v Man CityThu, 25 Apr 2024 · Premier League 2023-240–4HT 0–3
  6. Man City v BrightonSat, 21 Oct 2023 · Premier League 2023-242–1HT 2–0
  7. Brighton v Man CityWed, 24 May 2023 · Premier League 2022-231–1HT 1–1
  8. Man City v BrightonSat, 22 Oct 2022 · Premier League 2022-233–1HT 2–0
  9. Man City v BrightonWed, 20 Apr 2022 · Premier League 2021-223–0HT 0–0
  10. Brighton v Man CitySat, 23 Oct 2021 · Premier League 2021-221–4HT 0–3

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Man City at homeWLWWWW
Brighton awayLDLWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Man City at home, Brighton away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 9.9
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.4
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Man City at home, Brighton away
Man City (home)Brighton (away)
1Position3
WWWLast 5, oldest to newestLWW
3Played3
3.00Points per match2.00
100%Win %67%
2.67Scored / match3.33
1.33Conceded / match1.33
4.00Avg total goals4.67
67%Both scored33%
33%Clean sheets67%
0%Failed to score0%
2.43xG for2.10
1.86xG against2.14

Half by half

Man CityBrighton
  • 1.331st half scored / match0.67
  • 1.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.332nd half scored / match2.67
  • 0.332nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 67%Leading at half-time33%
  • 100%1st half over 0.567%
  • 33%1st half over 1.533%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 33%Scored in both halves67%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Man City at home, Brighton away, this season.

Goals

Man CityBrighton
  • 2.67Scored / match3.33
  • 1.33Conceded / match1.33
  • 4.00Match total / match4.67
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 67%Scored 2+100%
  • 67%Conceded 1+33%
  • 33%Conceded 2+33%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 67%Match over 2.567%
  • 33%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

Man CityBrighton
  • 14.67Shots for18.50
  • 11.33Shots against15.50
  • 5.33On target for6.50
  • 5.33On target against6.00
  • 18%Shot conversion22%
  • 2.43xG for2.10
  • 1.86xG against2.14

Corners

Man CityBrighton
  • 6.00Corners for5.00
  • 4.33Corners against4.50
  • 10.33Match total9.50
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.550%
  • 67%Over 9.550%
  • 67%Over 10.550%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

Man CityBrighton
  • 0.67Cards for1.50
  • 1.67Cards against1.00
  • 2.33Match total2.50
  • 67%Over 2.550%
  • 0%Over 3.550%
  • 0%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 10.67Fouls committed13.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Man City5815
2Arsenal6515
3Brighton61313
4Brentford6610
5Chelsea6210
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.