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Mansfield v Blackpool, EFL League One, Sat, 23 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 27. Sat, 23 Jan 2027

MansfieldHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
BlackpoolAway
LLDDWLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Mansfield have 4 scored home results and Blackpool 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Mansfield at home: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Blackpool away: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Mansfield scored 2.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Blackpool scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 8 pooled club appearances (75.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 4. Mansfield: 2 wins; Blackpool: 1 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Mansfield at home and Blackpool away.

Mansfield at home

xG 1.12
  • Shots per match16.0
  • On target per match3.7
  • Goals per match2.3

Blackpool away

xG 1.50
  • Shots per match12.0
  • On target per match2.7
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Mansfield
1.87
Expected goals, Blackpool
1.92
Most likely score
1-1 (8%)
Three or more goals
73%
Both clubs score
72%
Mansfield score at least once
85%
Blackpool score at least once
85%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Mansfield win–
Draw–
Blackpool win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Mansfield goals, columns are Blackpool goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%4%4%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
14%8%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
24%8%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
32%5%5%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.40 goals).

Sample. Mansfield 8 matches, Blackpool 8, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.534.6%65.4%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.564.4%35.6%
1.534.6%65.4%
2.516.3%83.7%
3.51.9%98.1%

Corners · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.571.7%28.3%
9.557.6%42.4%
10.545.7%54.3%

Yellow + red card events · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.589.1%10.9%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.532.6%67.4%
5.518.5%81.5%
6.59.8%90.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

4 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Mansfield wins
1
Draws
1
Blackpool wins
Goals / meeting
2.75
11 goals in 4 meetings
Both scored
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Over 1.5
75%
3 of 4 meetings
Over 2.5
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Over 3.5
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Mansfield clean sheets
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Blackpool clean sheets
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.25
4 with corner data
Cards / meeting
2.50
4 with card data
  1. Blackpool v MansfieldTue, 17 Feb 2026 · EFL League One 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  2. Mansfield v BlackpoolTue, 19 Aug 2025 · EFL League One 2025-262–0HT 0–0
  3. Blackpool v MansfieldSat, 15 Feb 2025 · EFL League One 2024-253–3HT 1–2
  4. Mansfield v BlackpoolSat, 5 Oct 2024 · EFL League One 2024-252–0HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Mansfield at homeLWLWDW
Blackpool awayWWLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Mansfield at home, Blackpool away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 11.5
    Corners per match
    League 10.72
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 72%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 58%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.7
    Cards per match
    League 3.78
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 32%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Mansfield at home, Blackpool away
Mansfield (home)Blackpool (away)
14Position18
WWDWLast 5, oldest to newestWLLL
4Played4
2.50Points per match0.75
75%Win %25%
2.25Scored / match1.00
1.00Conceded / match1.75
3.25Avg total goals2.75
75%Both scored75%
25%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score25%
1.12xG for1.50
1.31xG against2.80

Half by half

MansfieldBlackpool
  • 1.251st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.251st half conceded / match0.25
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match1.50
  • 50%Leading at half-time25%
  • 75%1st half over 0.550%
  • 50%1st half over 1.525%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 75%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Mansfield at home, Blackpool away, this season.

Goals

MansfieldBlackpool
  • 2.25Scored / match1.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.75
  • 3.25Match total / match2.75
  • 75%Scored 1+75%
  • 75%Scored 2+25%
  • 75%Conceded 1+100%
  • 25%Conceded 2+50%
  • 75%Match over 1.575%
  • 75%Match over 2.575%
  • 25%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

MansfieldBlackpool
  • 16.00Shots for12.00
  • 13.33Shots against23.67
  • 3.67On target for2.67
  • 3.33On target against7.00
  • 15%Shot conversion11%
  • 1.12xG for1.50
  • 1.31xG against2.80

Corners

MansfieldBlackpool
  • 4.33Corners for3.00
  • 4.67Corners against11.00
  • 9.00Match total14.00
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 33%Over 8.5100%
  • 33%Over 9.567%
  • 33%Over 10.567%
  • 0%Over 11.567%

Cards

MansfieldBlackpool
  • 2.67Cards for2.00
  • 1.00Cards against1.67
  • 3.67Match total3.67
  • 67%Over 2.567%
  • 33%Over 3.533%
  • 33%Over 4.533%
  • 33%Over 5.533%
  • 10.67Fouls committed8.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
12Leyton Orient9211
13Luton8111
14Mansfield8-211
15Wycombe9-610
16Doncaster809
17Leicester8-49
18Blackpool8-18
19Barnsley8-78
20Peterboro9-78
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League One matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.