Maritimo vs Arouca stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 21. Sun, 7 Feb 2027

MaritimoHome

vKick-off 11:00 UTC

AroucaAway

LLLDLLeague form, oldest to newestWDLDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Estádio do Marítimo. Photo: Pedro Miguel Monteiro, Public domain, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Maritimo have 4 scored home results and Arouca 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Maritimo at home: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Arouca away: 1.00 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Maritimo scored 1.00 per home match (4 measured matches); Arouca scored 0.83 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.38 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 10 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Maritimo: 1 wins; Arouca: 2 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Maritimo at home and Arouca away.

Maritimo at home

xG 0.90

Shots per match11.0
On target per match3.0
Goals per match1.0

Arouca away

xG 1.05

Shots per match8.8
On target per match2.5
Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Maritimo: 0.96
Expected goals, Arouca: 1.75
Most likely score: 0-1 (12%)
Three or more goals: 51%
Both clubs score: 51%
Maritimo score at least once: 62%
Arouca score at least once: 83%
Season sample: 8 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Maritimo win–

Draw–

Arouca win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Maritimo goals, columns are Arouca goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

07%12%10%6%3%1%

16%11%10%6%2%1%

23%5%5%3%1%

31%2%2%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.33 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Maritimo 8 matches, Arouca 9, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 10 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	76.4%	23.6%
2.5	56.2%	43.8%
3.5	37.1%	62.9%
4.5	9.0%	91.0%

First-half goals · 87 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	69.7%	30.3%
1.5	39.3%	60.7%
2.5	12.4%	87.6%
3.5	4.5%	95.5%

Corners · 62 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	46.9%	53.1%
9.5	37.5%	62.5%
10.5	25.0%	75.0%

Yellow + red card events · 62 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	93.8%	6.3%
1.5	90.6%	9.4%
2.5	81.3%	18.8%
3.5	67.2%	32.8%
4.5	46.9%	53.1%
5.5	26.6%	73.4%
6.5	20.3%	79.7%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Maritimo wins

Draws

Arouca wins

Goals / meeting

2.60

13 goals in 5 meetings

Both scored

60%

3 of 5 meetings

Over 1.5

80%

4 of 5 meetings

Over 2.5

60%

3 of 5 meetings

Over 3.5

20%

1 of 5 meetings

Maritimo clean sheets

20%

1 of 5 meetings

Arouca clean sheets

20%

1 of 5 meetings

Corners / meeting

10.20

5 with corner data

Cards / meeting

6.00

5 with card data

Arouca v MaritimoSat, 29 Aug 2026 · Primeira Liga 2026-272–1HT 1–1
Arouca v MaritimoSat, 8 Apr 2023 · Primeira Liga 2022-231–0HT 1–0
Maritimo v AroucaSun, 23 Oct 2022 · Primeira Liga 2022-231–1HT 1–1
Arouca v MaritimoMon, 14 Feb 2022 · Primeira Liga 2021-220–3HT 0–2
Maritimo v AroucaMon, 13 Sept 2021 · Primeira Liga 2021-222–2HT 2–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Maritimo at homeDWWDLL

Sat, 10 Octv FC Porto1–2C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 5 Septv Benfica0–3C 3–5 · Y 2–3
Sat, 22 Augv Academico Viseu2–2C 4–5 · Y 2–6
Sat, 8 Augv Casa Pia1–0C 2–6 · Y 2–2
Fri, 19 Mayv Vizela1–0C 5–6 · Y 2–4
Sun, 7 Mayv Rio Ave2–2C 13–1 · Y 3–0

Arouca awayWLLDDD

Sat, 19 Sept@ Sporting CP2–2C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 19 Sept@ Sp Lisbon2–2C 2–4 · Y 5–5
Mon, 7 Sept@ Estoril0–0C 2–8 · Y 1–4
Sun, 23 Aug@ FC Porto0–2C ––– · Y –––
Sun, 23 Aug@ Porto0–2C 2–12 · Y 0–1
Sat, 8 Aug@ Guimaraes1–0C 2–5 · Y 6–2

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Maritimo at home, Arouca away

42%
Both teams scored
League 52%
4 + 6 matches
92%
Over 0.5 goals
League 94%
4 + 6 matches
71%
Over 1.5 goals
League 77%
4 + 6 matches
54%
Over 2.5 goals
League 56%
4 + 6 matches
29%
Over 3.5 goals
League 37%
4 + 6 matches
0%
Over 4.5 goals
League 8%
4 + 6 matches
2.5
Avg total goals
League 2.76
4 + 6 matches
54%
1st half over 0.5
League 70%
4 + 6 matches
42%
1st half over 1.5
League 39%
4 + 6 matches
8.8
Corners per match
League 8.61
3 + 4 matches
42%
Corners over 8.5
League 47%
3 + 4 matches
25%
Corners over 9.5
League 37%
3 + 4 matches
13%
Corners over 10.5
League 24%
3 + 4 matches
5.8
Cards per match
League 4.44
3 + 4 matches
88%
Cards over 3.5
League 68%
3 + 4 matches
71%
Cards over 4.5
League 47%
3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Maritimo at home, Arouca away

Maritimo (home)		Arouca (away)
15	Position	9
WDLL	Last 5, oldest to newest	LLDDD
4	Played	6
1.00	Points per match	1.00
25%	Win %	17%
1.00	Scored / match	0.83
1.75	Conceded / match	1.33
2.75	Avg total goals	2.17
50%	Both scored	33%
25%	Clean sheets	33%
25%	Failed to score	50%
0.90	xG for	1.05
1.27	xG against	1.84

Half by half

MaritimoArouca

0.251st half scored / match0.00
1.001st half conceded / match0.67
0.752nd half scored / match0.83
0.752nd half conceded / match0.67
0%Leading at half-time0%
75%1st half over 0.533%
50%1st half over 1.533%
100%2nd half over 0.583%
50%2nd half over 1.567%
0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Maritimo at home, Arouca away, this season.

Goals

MaritimoArouca

1.00Scored / match0.83
1.75Conceded / match1.33
2.75Match total / match2.17
75%Scored 1+50%
25%Scored 2+33%
75%Conceded 1+67%
75%Conceded 2+67%
75%Match over 1.567%
75%Match over 2.533%
25%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

MaritimoArouca

11.00Shots for8.75
11.00Shots against18.75
3.00On target for2.50
5.67On target against6.00
9%Shot conversion9%
0.90xG for1.05
1.27xG against1.84

Corners

MaritimoArouca

3.00Corners for2.00
5.33Corners against7.25
8.33Match total9.25
100%Over 7.550%
33%Over 8.550%
0%Over 9.550%
0%Over 10.525%
0%Over 11.525%

Cards

MaritimoArouca

2.00Cards for3.00
3.67Cards against3.00
5.67Match total6.00
100%Over 2.575%
100%Over 3.575%
67%Over 4.575%
33%Over 5.550%
18.00Fouls committed10.25

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
7	Estrela	9	1	14
8	Academico Viseu	9	-2	14
9	Arouca	9	1	12
10	Sp Braga	6	2	11
11	Gil Vicente	7	1	11
13	Moreirense	10	-8	9
14	Famalicao	8	2	8
15	Maritimo	8	-5	8
16	Alverca	10	-7	8
17	Guimaraes	9	-5	5

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.