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Marumo Gallants FC v Mamelodi Sundowns, South African Premier Division, Sun, 14 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 22. Sun, 14 Mar 2027

Marumo Gallants FCHome
vKick-off 16:00 UTC
Mamelodi SundownsAway
LLDLLLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Marumo Gallants FC have 4 scored home results and Mamelodi Sundowns 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Marumo Gallants FC at home: 0.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Mamelodi Sundowns away: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Marumo Gallants FC scored 1.00 per home match (4 measured matches); Mamelodi Sundowns scored 1.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.14 per club appearance across 114 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 8 pooled club appearances (75.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Marumo Gallants FC: 0 wins; Mamelodi Sundowns: 1 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 57 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Marumo Gallants FC
0.59
Expected goals, Mamelodi Sundowns
3.57
Most likely score
0-3 (12%)
Three or more goals
78%
Both clubs score
43%
Marumo Gallants FC score at least once
45%
Mamelodi Sundowns score at least once
97%
Season sample
7 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Marumo Gallants FC win–
Draw–
Mamelodi Sundowns win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Marumo Gallants FC goals, columns are Mamelodi Sundowns goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%6%10%12%11%8%5%2%
11%3%6%7%6%5%3%1%
2under 1%1%2%2%2%1%1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.23 goals) and away average (1.05 goals).

Sample. Marumo Gallants FC 7 matches, Mamelodi Sundowns 8, the league 57, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.567.8%32.2%
2.533.9%66.1%
3.523.7%76.3%
4.513.6%86.4%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.555.9%44.1%
1.522.0%78.0%
2.55.1%94.9%
3.53.4%96.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Marumo Gallants FC wins
1
Draws
1
Mamelodi Sundowns wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
2 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Marumo Gallants FC clean sheets
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Mamelodi Sundowns clean sheets
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Mamelodi Sundowns v Marumo Gallants FCWed, 19 Aug 2026 · South African Premier Division 2026-272–0HT 1–0
  2. Mamelodi Sundowns v Marumo Gallants FCSat, 4 Oct 2025 · South African League Cup 20250–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Marumo Gallants FC at homeWDLDL
Mamelodi Sundowns awayWDWWDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Marumo Gallants FC at home, Mamelodi Sundowns away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 46%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 84%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 68%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 33%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 23%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.28
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 56%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 21%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Marumo Gallants FC at home, Mamelodi Sundowns away
Marumo Gallants FC (home)Mamelodi Sundowns (away)
16Position1
DLDLLast 5, oldest to newestWDWD
4Played4
0.50Points per match2.00
0%Win %50%
1.00Scored / match1.75
1.75Conceded / match1.25
2.75Avg total goals3.00
50%Both scored100%
25%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Marumo Gallants FCMamelodi Sundowns
  • 0.751st half scored / match0.50
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.25
  • 0.252nd half scored / match1.25
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time25%
  • 75%1st half over 0.550%
  • 50%1st half over 1.525%
  • 50%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 25%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Marumo Gallants FC at home, Mamelodi Sundowns away, this season.

Goals

Marumo Gallants FCMamelodi Sundowns
  • 1.00Scored / match1.75
  • 1.75Conceded / match1.25
  • 2.75Match total / match3.00
  • 50%Scored 1+100%
  • 50%Scored 2+50%
  • 75%Conceded 1+100%
  • 75%Conceded 2+25%
  • 75%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.550%
  • 50%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for South African Premier Division matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.