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Metz v Dunkerque, Ligue 2, Fri, 12 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 25. Fri, 12 Mar 2027

MetzHome
vKick-off 16:45 UTC
DunkerqueAway
DDWLDLeague form, oldest to newestLDWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Metz have 4 scored home results and Dunkerque 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Metz at home: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Dunkerque away: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Metz scored 2.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Dunkerque scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.27 per club appearance across 142 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 7 pooled club appearances (71.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Metz: 2 wins; Dunkerque: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Metz at home and Dunkerque away.

Metz at home

xG 1.73
  • Shots per match15.3
  • On target per match6.3
  • Goals per match2.3

Dunkerque away

xG 1.12
  • Shots per match10.0
  • On target per match4.7
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 71 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Metz
1.93
Expected goals, Dunkerque
0.93
Most likely score
1-0 (11%)
Three or more goals
55%
Both clubs score
52%
Metz score at least once
86%
Dunkerque score at least once
61%
Season sample
7 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Metz win–
Draw–
Dunkerque win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Metz goals, columns are Dunkerque goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%10%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%10%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
37%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.34 goals) and away average (1.20 goals).

Sample. Metz 7 matches, Dunkerque 8, the league 71, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 71 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.567.1%32.9%
2.543.8%56.2%
3.528.8%71.2%
4.516.4%83.6%

First-half goals · 71 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.9%41.1%
1.531.5%68.5%
2.513.7%86.3%
3.52.7%97.3%

Corners · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.558.5%41.5%
9.536.9%63.1%
10.530.8%69.2%

Yellow + red card events · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.573.8%26.2%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.540.0%60.0%
5.524.6%75.4%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Metz wins
0
Draws
0
Dunkerque wins
Goals / meeting
3.50
7 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Metz clean sheets
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Dunkerque clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
10.00
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
4.50
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Dunkerque v MetzSat, 15 Mar 2025 · Ligue 2 2024-252–3HT 0–1
  2. Metz v DunkerqueMon, 9 Dec 2024 · Ligue 2 2024-252–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Metz at homeLLWDWD
Dunkerque awayLWLDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Metz at home, Dunkerque away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 56%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 89%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 68%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 54%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 44%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 42%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 29%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 15%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.54
    4 + 3 matches
  • 46%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 29%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 9.1
    Corners per match
    League 8.95
    4 + 3 matches
  • 54%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 59%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 37%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 30%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.6
    Cards per match
    League 3.94
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 40%
    4 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Metz at home, Dunkerque away
Metz (home)Dunkerque (away)
9Position11
WDWDLast 5, oldest to newestDLL
4Played3
2.00Points per match0.33
50%Win %0%
2.25Scored / match1.00
1.25Conceded / match2.33
3.50Avg total goals3.33
100%Both scored33%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score67%
1.73xG for1.12
1.54xG against2.09

Half by half

MetzDunkerque
  • 0.751st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.251st half conceded / match0.67
  • 1.502nd half scored / match0.67
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match1.67
  • 25%Leading at half-time0%
  • 25%1st half over 0.567%
  • 25%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 75%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 25%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Metz at home, Dunkerque away, this season.

Goals

MetzDunkerque
  • 2.25Scored / match1.00
  • 1.25Conceded / match2.33
  • 3.50Match total / match3.33
  • 100%Scored 1+33%
  • 75%Scored 2+33%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 25%Conceded 2+100%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 75%Match over 2.533%
  • 50%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

MetzDunkerque
  • 15.25Shots for10.00
  • 13.50Shots against16.33
  • 6.25On target for4.67
  • 5.50On target against6.00
  • 15%Shot conversion10%
  • 1.73xG for1.12
  • 1.54xG against2.09

Corners

MetzDunkerque
  • 4.75Corners for4.67
  • 5.75Corners against3.00
  • 10.50Match total7.67
  • 100%Over 7.567%
  • 75%Over 8.533%
  • 50%Over 9.533%
  • 50%Over 10.533%
  • 25%Over 11.50%

Cards

MetzDunkerque
  • 2.25Cards for3.33
  • 2.00Cards against1.67
  • 4.25Match total5.00
  • 75%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.567%
  • 50%Over 4.567%
  • 50%Over 5.533%
  • 13.75Fouls committed13.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
7Pau FC8111
8Sochaux8-111
9Metz7310
10Dijon709
11Dunkerque8-38
11Guingamp8-38
13Nantes8-48
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Ligue 2 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.