Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Mirassol v Sao Paulo, Brasileirão Série A, Sat, 24 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 32. Sat, 24 Oct 2026

MirassolHome
vKick-off 19:30 UTC
Sao PauloAway
LWDWDLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Mirassol have 15 scored home results and Sao Paulo 15 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Mirassol at home: 1.53 points per match (15 measured matches); Sao Paulo away: 0.60 points per match (15 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Mirassol scored 1.40 per home match (15 measured matches); Sao Paulo scored 0.73 away (15). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.33 per club appearance across 582 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 19 of 30 pooled club appearances (63.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 4. Mirassol: 3 wins; Sao Paulo: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 291 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Mirassol
1.18
Expected goals, Sao Paulo
1.11
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
40%
Both clubs score
46%
Mirassol score at least once
69%
Sao Paulo score at least once
67%
Season sample
29 and 30 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Mirassol win–
Draw–
Sao Paulo win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Mirassol goals, columns are Sao Paulo goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%11%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%13%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%8%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.53 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Mirassol 29 matches, Sao Paulo 30, the league 291, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 291 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.2%21.8%
2.551.9%48.1%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.511.9%88.1%

First-half goals · 288 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.8%25.2%
1.533.8%66.2%
2.58.6%91.4%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

4 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Mirassol wins
0
Draws
1
Sao Paulo wins
Goals / meeting
2.25
9 goals in 4 meetings
Both scored
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Over 1.5
75%
3 of 4 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Mirassol clean sheets
75%
3 of 4 meetings
Sao Paulo clean sheets
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Sao Paulo v MirassolSun, 26 Apr 2026 · Brasileirão Série A 20261–0HT 0–0
  2. Mirassol v Sao PauloSun, 11 Jan 2026 · Paulista Série A1 20263–0HT 2–0
  3. Mirassol v Sao PauloSun, 19 Oct 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20253–0
  4. Sao Paulo v MirassolSat, 24 May 2025 · Brasileirão Série A 20250–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Mirassol at homeDDLDDW
Sao Paulo awayLDLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Mirassol at home, Sao Paulo away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 77%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 78%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 47%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 7%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    15 + 15 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.66
    15 + 15 matches
  • 76%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 75%
    14 + 15 matches
  • 32%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    14 + 15 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Mirassol at home, Sao Paulo away
Mirassol (home)Sao Paulo (away)
15Position9
WLDDWLast 5, oldest to newestDLLLL
15Played15
1.53Points per match0.60
40%Win %13%
1.40Scored / match0.73
1.40Conceded / match1.47
2.80Avg total goals2.20
73%Both scored53%
13%Clean sheets7%
13%Failed to score40%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

MirassolSao Paulo
  • 0.861st half scored / match0.20
  • 0.431st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.572nd half scored / match0.53
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.80
  • 43%Leading at half-time13%
  • 79%1st half over 0.573%
  • 50%1st half over 1.513%
  • 86%2nd half over 0.593%
  • 43%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 29%Scored in both halves7%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Mirassol at home, Sao Paulo away, this season.

Goals

MirassolSao Paulo
  • 1.40Scored / match0.73
  • 1.40Conceded / match1.47
  • 2.80Match total / match2.20
  • 87%Scored 1+60%
  • 53%Scored 2+13%
  • 87%Conceded 1+93%
  • 33%Conceded 2+47%
  • 80%Match over 1.573%
  • 60%Match over 2.533%
  • 27%Match over 3.57%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
7Atletico-MG29544
8Santos29242
9Sao Paulo30039
10Coritiba29-1038
11Bragantino29137
13Botafogo RJ29-535
14Vasco29-635
15Mirassol29-933
16Corinthians29-432
17Internacional29-531
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Brasileirão Série A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.