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Mito v Verdy, J1 League, Wed, 25 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 16. Wed, 25 Nov 2026

MitoHome
vKick-off 10:00 UTC
VerdyAway
WDLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLDDLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Mito have 5 scored home results and Verdy 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Mito at home: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Verdy away: 0.67 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Mito scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Verdy scored 0.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.46 per club appearance across 180 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 8 pooled club appearances (62.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 90 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Mito
1.53
Expected goals, Verdy
0.41
Most likely score
1-0 (22%)
Three or more goals
31%
Both clubs score
26%
Mito score at least once
78%
Verdy score at least once
33%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Mito win–
Draw–
Verdy win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Mito goals, columns are Verdy goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
014%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
122%9%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
217%7%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.34 goals).

Sample. Mito 9 matches, Verdy 9, the league 90, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.3%21.7%
2.553.3%46.7%
3.531.5%68.5%
4.518.5%81.5%

First-half goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.4%32.6%
1.535.9%64.1%
2.512.0%88.0%
3.52.2%97.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Mito at homeDLDWLL
Verdy awayDDWLDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Mito at home, Verdy away
  • 57%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 57%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 37%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 27%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 31%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 2.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    5 + 3 matches
  • 47%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 37%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    5 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Mito at home, Verdy away
Mito (home)Verdy (away)
13Position20
DDWLLLast 5, oldest to newestDDL
5Played3
1.00Points per match0.67
20%Win %0%
1.40Scored / match0.33
1.40Conceded / match1.00
2.80Avg total goals1.33
80%Both scored33%
0%Clean sheets67%
20%Failed to score67%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

MitoVerdy
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.201st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.602nd half scored / match0.33
  • 1.202nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 40%Leading at half-time0%
  • 60%1st half over 0.533%
  • 40%1st half over 1.533%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.533%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 20%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Mito at home, Verdy away, this season.

Goals

MitoVerdy
  • 1.40Scored / match0.33
  • 1.40Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.80Match total / match1.33
  • 80%Scored 1+33%
  • 20%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+33%
  • 40%Conceded 2+33%
  • 80%Match over 1.533%
  • 40%Match over 2.533%
  • 20%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
11Urawa Reds9-512
12Cerezo Osaka9-512
13Mito9-19
14V-Varen Nagasaki9-59
15Nagoya Grampus9-69
18Gamba Osaka9-86
19Chiba9-115
20Verdy9-104
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for J1 League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.