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Modena v Sudtirol, Serie B, Sat, 13 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 25. Sat, 13 Feb 2027

ModenaHome
vKick-off 16:00 UTC
SudtirolAway
WWLDWLeague form, oldest to newestDWDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Alberto Braglia. Photo: Vale93b, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Modena have 2 scored home results and Sudtirol 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Modena at home: 1.50 points per match (2 measured matches); Sudtirol away: 2.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Modena scored 1.00 per home match (2 measured matches); Sudtirol scored 2.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 114 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 4 pooled club appearances (75.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 9. Modena: 3 wins; Sudtirol: 1 wins; draws: 5.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Modena at home and Sudtirol away.

Modena at home

xG 1.81
  • Shots per match32.5
  • On target per match9.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Sudtirol away

xG 1.02
  • Shots per match9.5
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match2.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 57 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Modena
0.65
Expected goals, Sudtirol
0.85
Most likely score
0-0 (22%)
Three or more goals
19%
Both clubs score
27%
Modena score at least once
48%
Sudtirol score at least once
57%
Season sample
5 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Modena win–
Draw–
Sudtirol win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Modena goals, columns are Sudtirol goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
022%19%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%12%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.40 goals) and away average (1.23 goals).

Sample. Modena 5 matches, Sudtirol 6, the league 57, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.6%25.4%
2.552.5%47.5%
3.527.1%72.9%
4.513.6%86.4%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.0%39.0%
1.523.7%76.3%
2.510.2%89.8%
3.53.4%96.6%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.7%42.3%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.580.8%19.2%
3.565.4%34.6%
4.542.3%57.7%
5.519.2%80.8%
6.515.4%84.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

9 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Modena wins
5
Draws
1
Sudtirol wins
Goals / meeting
1.44
13 goals in 9 meetings
Both scored
44%
4 of 9 meetings
Over 1.5
56%
5 of 9 meetings
Over 2.5
22%
2 of 9 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 9 meetings
Modena clean sheets
56%
5 of 9 meetings
Sudtirol clean sheets
33%
3 of 9 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.00
9 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.78
9 with card data
  1. Sudtirol v ModenaSat, 12 Sept 2026 · Serie B 2026-271–1HT 1–0
  2. Sudtirol v ModenaSat, 11 Apr 2026 · Serie B 2025-261–1HT 0–1
  3. Modena v SudtirolSun, 23 Nov 2025 · Serie B 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  4. Modena v SudtirolSun, 29 Dec 2024 · Serie B 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  5. Sudtirol v ModenaSat, 17 Aug 2024 · Serie B 2024-252–1HT 1–1
  6. Modena v SudtirolSat, 27 Apr 2024 · Serie B 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  7. Sudtirol v ModenaTue, 26 Sept 2023 · Serie B 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  8. Modena v SudtirolFri, 19 May 2023 · Serie B 2022-232–1HT 2–0
  9. Sudtirol v ModenaMon, 26 Dec 2022 · Serie B 2022-230–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Modena at homeWWLWLW
Sudtirol awayLLDDLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Modena at home, Sudtirol away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.63
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 61%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 10.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.78
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.8
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 66%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 42%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Modena at home, Sudtirol away
Modena (home)Sudtirol (away)
6Position2
LWLast 5, oldest to newestDW
2Played2
1.50Points per match2.00
50%Win %50%
1.00Scored / match2.50
1.00Conceded / match1.00
2.00Avg total goals3.50
50%Both scored100%
0%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score0%
1.81xG for1.02
0.59xG against1.88

Half by half

ModenaSudtirol
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.50
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.00
  • 1.002nd half scored / match2.00
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time50%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 0%1st half over 1.50%
  • 50%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 0%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Modena at home, Sudtirol away, this season.

Goals

ModenaSudtirol
  • 1.00Scored / match2.50
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.00Match total / match3.50
  • 50%Scored 1+100%
  • 50%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+0%
  • 50%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.550%
  • 0%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

ModenaSudtirol
  • 32.50Shots for9.50
  • 7.50Shots against18.00
  • 9.00On target for3.50
  • 3.00On target against4.00
  • 3%Shot conversion26%
  • 1.81xG for1.02
  • 0.59xG against1.88

Corners

ModenaSudtirol
  • 7.50Corners for1.50
  • 2.00Corners against10.00
  • 9.50Match total11.50
  • 50%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.5100%
  • 50%Over 9.5100%
  • 50%Over 10.5100%
  • 50%Over 11.550%

Cards

ModenaSudtirol
  • 2.50Cards for1.50
  • 2.00Cards against1.50
  • 4.50Match total3.00
  • 100%Over 2.550%
  • 100%Over 3.550%
  • 50%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 14.00Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Palermo6716
2Sudtirol6612
3Mantova5511
4Ascoli6311
5Avellino6410
6Modena5410
7Pisa6310
8Benevento6310
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie B matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.