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Montpellier v Clermont, Ligue 2, Fri, 15 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 17. Fri, 15 Jan 2027

MontpellierHome
vKick-off 16:45 UTC
ClermontAway
DLWDWLeague form, oldest to newestDDDDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Montpellier have 4 scored home results and Clermont 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Montpellier at home: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Clermont away: 0.67 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Montpellier scored 1.00 per home match (4 measured matches); Clermont scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.27 per club appearance across 142 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 7 pooled club appearances (57.1%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 8. Montpellier: 2 wins; Clermont: 2 wins; draws: 4.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Montpellier at home and Clermont away.

Montpellier at home

xG 1.53
  • Shots per match17.0
  • On target per match5.3
  • Goals per match1.0

Clermont away

xG 0.85
  • Shots per match10.3
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 71 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Montpellier
0.94
Expected goals, Clermont
0.35
Most likely score
0-0 (28%)
Three or more goals
14%
Both clubs score
18%
Montpellier score at least once
61%
Clermont score at least once
29%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Montpellier win–
Draw–
Clermont win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Montpellier goals, columns are Clermont goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
028%10%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
126%9%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
212%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.34 goals) and away average (1.20 goals).

Sample. Montpellier 8 matches, Clermont 8, the league 71, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 71 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.567.1%32.9%
2.543.8%56.2%
3.528.8%71.2%
4.516.4%83.6%

First-half goals · 71 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.9%41.1%
1.531.5%68.5%
2.513.7%86.3%
3.52.7%97.3%

Corners · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.558.5%41.5%
9.536.9%63.1%
10.530.8%69.2%

Yellow + red card events · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.573.8%26.2%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.540.0%60.0%
5.524.6%75.4%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

8 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Montpellier wins
4
Draws
2
Clermont wins
Goals / meeting
2.25
18 goals in 8 meetings
Both scored
88%
7 of 8 meetings
Over 1.5
88%
7 of 8 meetings
Over 2.5
38%
3 of 8 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 8 meetings
Montpellier clean sheets
13%
1 of 8 meetings
Clermont clean sheets
0%
0 of 8 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.38
8 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.75
8 with card data
  1. Montpellier v ClermontSat, 2 May 2026 · Ligue 2 2025-261–2HT 1–2
  2. Clermont v MontpellierTue, 28 Oct 2025 · Ligue 2 2025-261–1HT 1–1
  3. Clermont v MontpellierSun, 14 Apr 2024 · Ligue 1 2023-241–1HT 1–0
  4. Montpellier v ClermontWed, 29 Nov 2023 · Ligue 1 2023-241–1HT 0–1
  5. Montpellier v ClermontSun, 19 Mar 2023 · Ligue 1 2022-232–1HT 0–1
  6. Clermont v MontpellierSun, 6 Nov 2022 · Ligue 1 2022-231–1HT 0–1
  7. Clermont v MontpellierSun, 8 May 2022 · Ligue 1 2021-222–1HT 1–1
  8. Montpellier v ClermontSun, 5 Dec 2021 · Ligue 1 2021-221–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Montpellier at homeDDWWDW
Clermont awayDLWLDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Montpellier at home, Clermont away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 56%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 89%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 68%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 44%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 15%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 2.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.54
    4 + 3 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 8.7
    Corners per match
    League 8.95
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 30%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.5
    Cards per match
    League 3.94
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 40%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Montpellier at home, Clermont away
Montpellier (home)Clermont (away)
3Position17
DDWWLast 5, oldest to newestLDD
4Played3
2.00Points per match0.67
50%Win %0%
1.00Scored / match1.00
0.25Conceded / match1.67
1.25Avg total goals2.67
25%Both scored100%
75%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score0%
1.53xG for0.85
1.23xG against1.74

Half by half

MontpellierClermont
  • 0.251st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.752nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.252nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 25%Leading at half-time0%
  • 25%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.50%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 25%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Montpellier at home, Clermont away, this season.

Goals

MontpellierClermont
  • 1.00Scored / match1.00
  • 0.25Conceded / match1.67
  • 1.25Match total / match2.67
  • 75%Scored 1+100%
  • 25%Scored 2+0%
  • 25%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+33%
  • 50%Match over 1.5100%
  • 0%Match over 2.533%
  • 0%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

MontpellierClermont
  • 17.00Shots for10.33
  • 12.00Shots against17.00
  • 5.33On target for3.33
  • 4.67On target against2.67
  • 4%Shot conversion10%
  • 1.53xG for0.85
  • 1.23xG against1.74

Corners

MontpellierClermont
  • 5.67Corners for5.67
  • 1.33Corners against4.67
  • 7.00Match total10.33
  • 67%Over 7.5100%
  • 33%Over 8.5100%
  • 0%Over 9.533%
  • 0%Over 10.533%
  • 0%Over 11.533%

Cards

MontpellierClermont
  • 2.33Cards for2.00
  • 3.33Cards against1.33
  • 5.67Match total3.33
  • 100%Over 2.567%
  • 100%Over 3.533%
  • 100%Over 4.533%
  • 67%Over 5.50%
  • 15.67Fouls committed14.67

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1St Etienne81319
2Red Star8317
3Montpellier8315
4Reims8614
5Nancy8213
15Rodez8-47
16Boulogne8-26
17Clermont8-36
18Laval8-75
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Ligue 2 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.