Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Moreirense v Estoril, Primeira Liga, Sun, 14 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 26. Sun, 14 Mar 2027

MoreirenseHome
vKick-off 11:00 UTC
EstorilAway
LLWDLLeague form, oldest to newestDLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Photo: Bohemio09, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Moreirense have 5 scored home results and Estoril 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Moreirense at home: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Estoril away: 0.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Moreirense scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Estoril scored 0.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.38 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Moreirense: 5 wins; Estoril: 2 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Moreirense at home and Estoril away.

Moreirense at home

xG 0.86
  • Shots per match8.7
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.4

Estoril away

xG 0.64
  • Shots per match8.3
  • On target per match2.7
  • Goals per match0.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Moreirense
1.11
Expected goals, Estoril
0.63
Most likely score
1-0 (19%)
Three or more goals
25%
Both clubs score
31%
Moreirense score at least once
67%
Estoril score at least once
47%
Season sample
10 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Moreirense win–
Draw–
Estoril win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Moreirense goals, columns are Estoril goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
017%11%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
119%12%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.33 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Moreirense 10 matches, Estoril 9, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 21 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.4%23.6%
2.556.2%43.8%
3.537.1%62.9%
4.59.0%91.0%

First-half goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.7%30.3%
1.539.3%60.7%
2.512.4%87.6%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.546.9%53.1%
9.537.5%62.5%
10.525.0%75.0%

Yellow + red card events · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.3%
1.590.6%9.4%
2.581.3%18.8%
3.567.2%32.8%
4.546.9%53.1%
5.526.6%73.4%
6.520.3%79.7%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Moreirense wins
3
Draws
2
Estoril wins
Goals / meeting
2.90
29 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Moreirense clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Estoril clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
8.90
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.00
10 with card data
  1. Moreirense v EstorilMon, 20 Apr 2026 · Primeira Liga 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  2. Estoril v MoreirenseSun, 7 Dec 2025 · Primeira Liga 2025-263–3HT 1–1
  3. Moreirense v EstorilSun, 11 May 2025 · Primeira Liga 2024-252–2HT 1–0
  4. Estoril v MoreirenseSat, 28 Dec 2024 · Primeira Liga 2024-252–2HT 2–1
  5. Moreirense v EstorilSat, 18 May 2024 · Primeira Liga 2023-242–1HT 1–0
  6. Estoril v MoreirenseSat, 13 Jan 2024 · Primeira Liga 2023-241–3HT 0–2
  7. Estoril v MoreirenseSat, 7 May 2022 · Primeira Liga 2021-221–0HT 0–0
  8. Moreirense v EstorilTue, 28 Dec 2021 · Primeira Liga 2021-221–0HT 1–0
  9. Moreirense v EstorilMon, 12 Feb 2018 · Primeira Liga 2017-181–2HT 1–0
  10. Estoril v MoreirenseSun, 10 Sept 2017 · Primeira Liga 2017-180–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Moreirense at homeDDDLWL
Estoril awayDLLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Moreirense at home, Estoril away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 8%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.76
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 8.3
    Corners per match
    League 8.61
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 47%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 24%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.8
    Cards per match
    League 4.44
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 68%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 47%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Moreirense at home, Estoril away
Moreirense (home)Estoril (away)
13Position21
DDLWLLast 5, oldest to newestLLLLL
5Played5
1.00Points per match0.00
20%Win %0%
1.40Scored / match0.40
2.00Conceded / match1.60
3.40Avg total goals2.00
60%Both scored40%
0%Clean sheets0%
40%Failed to score60%
0.86xG for0.64
1.75xG against1.97

Half by half

MoreirenseEstoril
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.40
  • 0.602nd half scored / match0.40
  • 1.402nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 20%Leading at half-time0%
  • 80%1st half over 0.540%
  • 60%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 80%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 60%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Moreirense at home, Estoril away, this season.

Goals

MoreirenseEstoril
  • 1.40Scored / match0.40
  • 2.00Conceded / match1.60
  • 3.40Match total / match2.00
  • 60%Scored 1+40%
  • 60%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 60%Conceded 2+60%
  • 80%Match over 1.560%
  • 80%Match over 2.540%
  • 80%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

MoreirenseEstoril
  • 8.67Shots for8.33
  • 14.33Shots against21.67
  • 3.00On target for2.67
  • 5.00On target against6.00
  • 19%Shot conversion4%
  • 0.86xG for0.64
  • 1.75xG against1.97

Corners

MoreirenseEstoril
  • 3.33Corners for2.00
  • 4.67Corners against6.67
  • 8.00Match total8.67
  • 67%Over 7.567%
  • 33%Over 8.567%
  • 33%Over 9.533%
  • 0%Over 10.533%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

MoreirenseEstoril
  • 3.00Cards for3.67
  • 2.33Cards against0.67
  • 5.33Match total4.33
  • 100%Over 2.567%
  • 100%Over 3.567%
  • 67%Over 4.567%
  • 67%Over 5.533%
  • 15.33Fouls committed12.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
11Gil Vicente7111
12Sporting Braga7011
13Moreirense10-89
14Famalicao828
15Maritimo8-58
19Rio Ave9-164
20Casa Pia9-174
21Estoril9-92
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.