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Moreirense v FC Porto, Primeira Liga, Sun, 14 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 22. Sun, 14 Feb 2027

MoreirenseHome
vKick-off 11:00 UTC
FC PortoAway
LLWDLLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Photo: Bohemio09, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Moreirense have 5 scored home results and FC Porto 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Moreirense at home: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches); FC Porto away: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Moreirense scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); FC Porto scored 2.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.38 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 9 pooled club appearances (55.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Moreirense: 0 wins; FC Porto: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Moreirense at home and FC Porto away.

Moreirense at home

xG 0.86
  • Shots per match8.7
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.4

FC Porto away

  • Shots per match–
  • On target per match–
  • Goals per match2.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Moreirense
0.39
Expected goals, FC Porto
3.56
Most likely score
0-3 (15%)
Three or more goals
75%
Both clubs score
31%
Moreirense score at least once
32%
FC Porto score at least once
97%
Season sample
10 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Moreirense win–
Draw–
FC Porto win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Moreirense goals, columns are FC Porto goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%7%13%15%13%9%6%3%
11%3%5%6%5%4%2%1%
2under 1%1%1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.33 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Moreirense 10 matches, FC Porto 8, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 9 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.4%23.6%
2.556.2%43.8%
3.537.1%62.9%
4.59.0%91.0%

First-half goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.7%30.3%
1.539.3%60.7%
2.512.4%87.6%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.546.9%53.1%
9.537.5%62.5%
10.525.0%75.0%

Yellow + red card events · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.3%
1.590.6%9.4%
2.581.3%18.8%
3.567.2%32.8%
4.546.9%53.1%
5.526.6%73.4%
6.520.3%79.7%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Moreirense wins
0
Draws
1
FC Porto wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Moreirense clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
FC Porto clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. FC Porto v MoreirenseFri, 4 Sept 2026 · Primeira Liga 2026-272–1HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Moreirense at homeDDDLWL
FC Porto awayDLWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Moreirense at home, FC Porto away
  • 55%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 53%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 8%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.76
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Moreirense at home, FC Porto away
Moreirense (home)FC Porto (away)
13Position1
DDLWLLast 5, oldest to newestWWWW
5Played4
1.00Points per match3.00
20%Win %100%
1.40Scored / match2.75
2.00Conceded / match0.50
3.40Avg total goals3.25
60%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets50%
40%Failed to score0%
0.86xG for–
1.75xG against–

Half by half

MoreirenseFC Porto
  • 0.801st half scored / match1.50
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.602nd half scored / match1.25
  • 1.402nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 20%Leading at half-time50%
  • 80%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 60%1st half over 1.575%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 80%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 60%Scored in both halves75%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Moreirense at home, FC Porto away, this season.

Goals

MoreirenseFC Porto
  • 1.40Scored / match2.75
  • 2.00Conceded / match0.50
  • 3.40Match total / match3.25
  • 60%Scored 1+100%
  • 60%Scored 2+100%
  • 100%Conceded 1+50%
  • 60%Conceded 2+0%
  • 80%Match over 1.5100%
  • 80%Match over 2.575%
  • 80%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

MoreirenseFC Porto
  • 8.67Shots for–
  • 14.33Shots against–
  • 3.00On target for–
  • 5.00On target against–
  • 19%Shot conversion–
  • 0.86xG for–
  • 1.75xG against–

Corners

MoreirenseFC Porto
  • 3.33Corners for–
  • 4.67Corners against–
  • 8.00Match total–
  • 67%Over 7.5–
  • 33%Over 8.5–
  • 33%Over 9.5–
  • 0%Over 10.5–
  • 0%Over 11.5–

Cards

MoreirenseFC Porto
  • 3.00Cards for–
  • 2.33Cards against–
  • 5.33Match total–
  • 100%Over 2.5–
  • 100%Over 3.5–
  • 67%Over 4.5–
  • 67%Over 5.5–
  • 15.33Fouls committed–

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1FC Porto81624
2Porto71521
3Santa Clara9819
11Gil Vicente7111
12Sporting Braga7011
13Moreirense10-89
14Famalicao828
15Maritimo8-58
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.