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Nacional v Estrela, Primeira Liga, Sun, 30 Aug 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 4. Sun, 30 Aug 2026

NacionalHome
23Full time, half-time 1–1
EstrelaAway

Estrela won by 1 goal.

LLLLLLeague form, oldest to newestDWWDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Estádio da Madeira. Photo: Mghamburg, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Nacional have 1 scored home results and Estrela 1 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Nacional at home: 3.00 points per match (1 measured matches); Estrela away: 1.00 points per match (1 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Nacional scored 2.00 per home match (1 measured match); Estrela scored 2.00 away (1). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.47 per club appearance across 74 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 2 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 4. Nacional: 1 wins; Estrela: 2 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

How the goals came

No timeline: goal minutes, cards and substitutions are not stored for this match. The goals are shown by half instead.

First half11
Second half12

The match in numbers

NacionalEstrela
  • 10Shots14
  • 5Shots on target4
  • 0.84xG2.10
  • 4Corners3
  • 12Fouls9
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

From shots to goals

Nacional

xG 0.84
  • Shots10
  • On target5
  • Goals2

50% of shots on target, 40% of those scored.

Estrela

xG 2.10
  • Shots14
  • On target4
  • Goals3

29% of shots on target, 75% of those scored.

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prediction

Prototype model, not yet validated

No prediction is shown for a finished match. The model keeps no figure from before kick-off, so showing one now would be written with the result already known.

How the model works

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

4 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Nacional wins
1
Draws
2
Estrela wins
Goals / meeting
1.75
7 goals in 4 meetings
Both scored
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Over 1.5
75%
3 of 4 meetings
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Nacional clean sheets
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Estrela clean sheets
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.25
4 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.75
4 with card data
  1. Nacional v EstrelaSat, 4 Apr 2026 · Primeira Liga 2025-262–0HT 1–0
  2. Estrela v NacionalSun, 9 Nov 2025 · Primeira Liga 2025-261–1HT 0–1
  3. Nacional v EstrelaSun, 6 Apr 2025 · Primeira Liga 2024-250–1HT 0–0
  4. Estrela v NacionalSun, 10 Nov 2024 · Primeira Liga 2024-252–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Nacional at homeLWWLLL
Estrela awayLLDDWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Nacional at home, Estrela away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 88%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 88%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 46%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 8%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.76
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 6.8
    Corners per match
    League 8.61
    4 + 3 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 47%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 25%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 37%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 13%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 24%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.8
    Cards per match
    League 4.44
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 68%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 47%
    4 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Nacional at home, Estrela away
Nacional (home)Estrela (away)
18Position7
WLLLLast 5, oldest to newestDWD
4Played3
0.75Points per match1.67
25%Win %33%
1.25Scored / match2.67
2.50Conceded / match2.33
3.75Avg total goals5.00
50%Both scored100%
25%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score0%
1.59xG for1.75
1.38xG against1.28

Half by half

NacionalEstrela
  • 0.251st half scored / match0.67
  • 1.751st half conceded / match0.67
  • 1.002nd half scored / match2.00
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match1.67
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 75%1st half over 0.567%
  • 75%1st half over 1.567%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 25%Scored in both halves67%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Nacional at home, Estrela away, this season.

Goals

NacionalEstrela
  • 1.25Scored / match2.67
  • 2.50Conceded / match2.33
  • 3.75Match total / match5.00
  • 75%Scored 1+100%
  • 50%Scored 2+100%
  • 75%Conceded 1+100%
  • 75%Conceded 2+100%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 75%Match over 2.5100%
  • 75%Match over 3.5100%

Shots and xG

NacionalEstrela
  • 13.75Shots for14.67
  • 11.25Shots against11.67
  • 3.50On target for5.67
  • 5.75On target against5.00
  • 9%Shot conversion18%
  • 1.59xG for1.75
  • 1.38xG against1.28

Corners

NacionalEstrela
  • 5.00Corners for2.67
  • 2.50Corners against3.33
  • 7.50Match total6.00
  • 50%Over 7.533%
  • 50%Over 8.533%
  • 50%Over 9.50%
  • 25%Over 10.50%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

NacionalEstrela
  • 1.50Cards for2.67
  • 3.00Cards against2.33
  • 4.50Match total5.00
  • 100%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.567%
  • 50%Over 4.567%
  • 25%Over 5.533%
  • 10.75Fouls committed11.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Benfica81316
6Sp Lisbon7915
7Estrela9114
8Academico Viseu9-214
9Arouca9112
16Alverca10-78
17Guimaraes9-55
18Nacional8-104
19Rio Ave9-164
20Casa Pia9-174
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.