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Nasaf Qarshi v FC OKMK, Uzbekistan Super League, Thu, 26 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 29. Thu, 26 Nov 2026

Nasaf QarshiHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
FC OKMKAway
LWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestLDWLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Nasaf Qarshi have 12 scored home results and FC OKMK 11 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Nasaf Qarshi at home: 1.75 points per match (12 measured matches); FC OKMK away: 1.82 points per match (11 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Nasaf Qarshi scored 1.50 per home match (12 measured matches); FC OKMK scored 1.64 away (11). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.34 per club appearance across 360 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 12 of 23 pooled club appearances (52.2%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Nasaf Qarshi: 1 wins; FC OKMK: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 180 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Nasaf Qarshi
1.63
Expected goals, FC OKMK
0.91
Most likely score
1-0 (13%)
Three or more goals
47%
Both clubs score
48%
Nasaf Qarshi score at least once
80%
FC OKMK score at least once
60%
Season sample
23 and 22 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Nasaf Qarshi win–
Draw–
FC OKMK win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Nasaf Qarshi goals, columns are FC OKMK goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
113%12%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
36%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.46 goals) and away average (1.22 goals).

Sample. Nasaf Qarshi 23 matches, FC OKMK 22, the league 180, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 180 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.0%28.0%
2.553.8%46.2%
3.528.6%71.4%
4.513.7%86.3%

First-half goals · 179 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.568.0%32.0%
1.537.0%63.0%
2.511.6%88.4%
3.56.1%93.9%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Nasaf Qarshi wins
0
Draws
0
FC OKMK wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Nasaf Qarshi clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
FC OKMK clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. FC OKMK v Nasaf QarshiMon, 3 Aug 2026 · Uzbekistan Super League 20261–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Nasaf Qarshi at homeWDLWWW
FC OKMK awayWWWLDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Nasaf Qarshi at home, FC OKMK away
  • 53%
    Both teams scored
    League 55%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 87%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 61%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 72%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 53%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 31%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 22%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.68
    12 + 11 matches
  • 53%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 35%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    12 + 11 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Nasaf Qarshi at home, FC OKMK away
Nasaf Qarshi (home)FC OKMK (away)
4Position6
DLWWWLast 5, oldest to newestWWLDW
12Played11
1.75Points per match1.82
50%Win %55%
1.50Scored / match1.64
0.83Conceded / match1.36
2.33Avg total goals3.00
42%Both scored64%
50%Clean sheets18%
25%Failed to score27%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Nasaf QarshiFC OKMK
  • 0.581st half scored / match0.64
  • 0.171st half conceded / match0.82
  • 0.922nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match0.55
  • 17%Leading at half-time27%
  • 33%1st half over 0.573%
  • 25%1st half over 1.546%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.582%
  • 42%2nd half over 1.546%
  • 25%Scored in both halves9%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Nasaf Qarshi at home, FC OKMK away, this season.

Goals

Nasaf QarshiFC OKMK
  • 1.50Scored / match1.64
  • 0.83Conceded / match1.36
  • 2.33Match total / match3.00
  • 75%Scored 1+73%
  • 33%Scored 2+55%
  • 50%Conceded 1+82%
  • 25%Conceded 2+46%
  • 50%Match over 1.573%
  • 42%Match over 2.564%
  • 17%Match over 3.546%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Uzbekistan Super League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.