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Newcastle v Everton, Premier League, Sat, 31 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 9. Sat, 31 Oct 2026

NewcastleHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
EvertonAway
DWDLWLeague form, oldest to newestWDDDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

St James’ Park. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Newcastle have 3 scored home results and Everton 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Newcastle at home: 1.67 points per match (3 measured matches); Everton away: 1.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Newcastle scored 2.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Everton scored 0.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 5 pooled club appearances (80.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Newcastle: 4 wins; Everton: 4 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Newcastle at home and Everton away.

Newcastle at home

xG 1.24
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match3.7
  • Goals per match2.0

Everton away

xG 1.48
  • Shots per match12.5
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match0.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Newcastle
0.82
Expected goals, Everton
1.36
Most likely score
0-1 (15%)
Three or more goals
37%
Both clubs score
42%
Newcastle score at least once
56%
Everton score at least once
74%
Season sample
5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Newcastle win–
Draw–
Everton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Newcastle goals, columns are Everton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%15%10%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%13%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Newcastle 5 matches, Everton 5, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Newcastle wins
2
Draws
4
Everton wins
Goals / meeting
2.70
27 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Newcastle clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Everton clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.30
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.70
10 with card data
  1. Newcastle v EvertonSat, 28 Feb 2026 · Premier League 2025-262–3HT 1–2
  2. Everton v NewcastleSat, 29 Nov 2025 · Premier League 2025-261–4HT 0–3
  3. Newcastle v EvertonSun, 25 May 2025 · Premier League 2024-250–1HT 0–0
  4. Everton v NewcastleSat, 5 Oct 2024 · Premier League 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  5. Newcastle v EvertonTue, 2 Apr 2024 · Premier League 2023-241–1HT 1–0
  6. Everton v NewcastleThu, 7 Dec 2023 · Premier League 2023-243–0HT 0–0
  7. Everton v NewcastleThu, 27 Apr 2023 · Premier League 2022-231–4HT 0–1
  8. Newcastle v EvertonWed, 19 Oct 2022 · Premier League 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  9. Everton v NewcastleThu, 17 Mar 2022 · Premier League 2021-221–0HT 0–0
  10. Newcastle v EvertonTue, 8 Feb 2022 · Premier League 2021-223–1HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Newcastle at homeWWDWDW
Everton awayLDLWDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Newcastle at home, Everton away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 11.3
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 67%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 67%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 4.8
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Newcastle at home, Everton away
Newcastle (home)Everton (away)
11Position8
DDWLast 5, oldest to newestDD
3Played2
1.67Points per match1.00
33%Win %0%
2.00Scored / match0.50
1.67Conceded / match0.50
3.67Avg total goals1.00
100%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score50%
1.24xG for1.48
1.98xG against1.42

Half by half

NewcastleEverton
  • 1.331st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.50
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 67%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 67%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 67%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Newcastle at home, Everton away, this season.

Goals

NewcastleEverton
  • 2.00Scored / match0.50
  • 1.67Conceded / match0.50
  • 3.67Match total / match1.00
  • 100%Scored 1+50%
  • 100%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+50%
  • 67%Conceded 2+0%
  • 100%Match over 1.550%
  • 100%Match over 2.50%
  • 67%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

NewcastleEverton
  • 11.00Shots for12.50
  • 22.00Shots against15.50
  • 3.67On target for5.00
  • 5.33On target against3.50
  • 18%Shot conversion4%
  • 1.24xG for1.48
  • 1.98xG against1.42

Corners

NewcastleEverton
  • 3.33Corners for6.50
  • 5.33Corners against7.50
  • 8.67Match total14.00
  • 67%Over 7.5100%
  • 33%Over 8.5100%
  • 33%Over 9.5100%
  • 33%Over 10.5100%
  • 0%Over 11.550%

Cards

NewcastleEverton
  • 2.67Cards for2.00
  • 3.33Cards against1.50
  • 6.00Match total3.50
  • 100%Over 2.550%
  • 100%Over 3.550%
  • 100%Over 4.550%
  • 33%Over 5.50%
  • 13.00Fouls committed11.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
6Leeds639
7Liverpool539
8Everton539
9Ipswich6-39
10Hull528
11Newcastle508
12Man United606
13Nott'm Forest5-15
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.