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Ningbo FC v Jiangxi Dingnan United, Chinese League 1, Sat, 7 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 30. Sat, 7 Nov 2026

Ningbo FCHome
vKick-off 06:30 UTC
Jiangxi Dingnan UnitedAway
LWLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLLDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Ningbo FC have 12 scored home results and Jiangxi Dingnan United 11 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Ningbo FC at home: 1.42 points per match (12 measured matches); Jiangxi Dingnan United away: 1.00 points per match (11 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Ningbo FC scored 1.42 per home match (12 measured matches); Jiangxi Dingnan United scored 1.45 away (11). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.35 per club appearance across 400 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 16 of 23 pooled club appearances (69.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Ningbo FC: 1 wins; Jiangxi Dingnan United: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 200 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Ningbo FC
1.66
Expected goals, Jiangxi Dingnan United
1.28
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
56%
Both clubs score
58%
Ningbo FC score at least once
81%
Jiangxi Dingnan United score at least once
72%
Season sample
24 and 24 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Ningbo FC win–
Draw–
Jiangxi Dingnan United win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Ningbo FC goals, columns are Jiangxi Dingnan United goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%7%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%11%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%9%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.43 goals) and away average (1.27 goals).

Sample. Ningbo FC 24 matches, Jiangxi Dingnan United 24, the league 200, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 200 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.573.3%26.7%
2.552.0%48.0%
3.527.7%72.3%
4.514.4%85.6%

First-half goals · 200 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.568.8%31.2%
1.536.1%63.9%
2.512.4%87.6%
3.53.5%96.5%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Ningbo FC wins
0
Draws
0
Jiangxi Dingnan United wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Ningbo FC clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Jiangxi Dingnan United clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Jiangxi Dingnan United v Ningbo FCSat, 18 Jul 2026 · Chinese League 1 20260–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Ningbo FC at homeWLLLDW
Jiangxi Dingnan United awayLDDLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Ningbo FC at home, Jiangxi Dingnan United away
  • 70%
    Both teams scored
    League 55%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 78%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 74%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 61%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 35%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 26%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 3.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.70
    12 + 11 matches
  • 69%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 69%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 35%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    12 + 11 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Ningbo FC at home, Jiangxi Dingnan United away
Ningbo FC (home)Jiangxi Dingnan United (away)
10Position14
LLLDWLast 5, oldest to newestDDLLL
12Played11
1.42Points per match1.00
42%Win %18%
1.42Scored / match1.45
1.58Conceded / match2.09
3.00Avg total goals3.55
67%Both scored73%
25%Clean sheets9%
8%Failed to score18%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Ningbo FCJiangxi Dingnan United
  • 0.581st half scored / match0.55
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.73
  • 0.832nd half scored / match0.91
  • 0.922nd half conceded / match1.36
  • 17%Leading at half-time27%
  • 75%1st half over 0.564%
  • 33%1st half over 1.536%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.591%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.564%
  • 17%Scored in both halves18%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Ningbo FC at home, Jiangxi Dingnan United away, this season.

Goals

Ningbo FCJiangxi Dingnan United
  • 1.42Scored / match1.45
  • 1.58Conceded / match2.09
  • 3.00Match total / match3.55
  • 92%Scored 1+82%
  • 42%Scored 2+36%
  • 75%Conceded 1+91%
  • 42%Conceded 2+55%
  • 75%Match over 1.582%
  • 58%Match over 2.564%
  • 33%Match over 3.536%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Chinese League 1 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.