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NK Krka v Ilirija 1911, 2. SNL, Sun, 25 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 25. Sun, 25 Apr 2027

NK KrkaHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Ilirija 1911Away
WLLLLLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, NK Krka have 4 scored home results and Ilirija 1911 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: NK Krka at home: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Ilirija 1911 away: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. NK Krka scored 1.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Ilirija 1911 scored 2.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.48 per club appearance across 154 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. NK Krka: 0 wins; Ilirija 1911: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 77 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, NK Krka
0.94
Expected goals, Ilirija 1911
1.52
Most likely score
0-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
45%
Both clubs score
48%
NK Krka score at least once
61%
Ilirija 1911 score at least once
78%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

NK Krka win–
Draw–
Ilirija 1911 win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are NK Krka goals, columns are Ilirija 1911 goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%13%10%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
18%12%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
24%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.87 goals) and away average (1.09 goals).

Sample. NK Krka 10 matches, Ilirija 1911 10, the league 77, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 9 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 77 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.7%25.3%
2.557.0%43.0%
3.539.2%60.8%
4.522.8%77.2%

First-half goals · 77 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.557.0%43.0%
1.536.7%63.3%
2.515.2%84.8%
3.53.8%96.2%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
NK Krka wins
0
Draws
1
Ilirija 1911 wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
NK Krka clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Ilirija 1911 clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Ilirija 1911 v NK KrkaSat, 10 Oct 2026 · 2. SNL 2026-272–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
NK Krka at homeDLWDL
Ilirija 1911 awayWWLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
NK Krka at home, Ilirija 1911 away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 57%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 39%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 22%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.96
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 57%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
NK Krka at home, Ilirija 1911 away
NK Krka (home)Ilirija 1911 (away)
14Position5
DLWLLast 5, oldest to newestWLLL
4Played4
1.00Points per match0.75
25%Win %25%
1.25Scored / match2.00
1.25Conceded / match1.50
2.50Avg total goals3.50
50%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets25%
25%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

NK KrkaIlirija 1911
  • 0.751st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.75
  • 0.502nd half scored / match1.25
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match0.75
  • 25%Leading at half-time25%
  • 75%1st half over 0.575%
  • 50%1st half over 1.550%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 50%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

NK Krka at home, Ilirija 1911 away, this season.

Goals

NK KrkaIlirija 1911
  • 1.25Scored / match2.00
  • 1.25Conceded / match1.50
  • 2.50Match total / match3.50
  • 75%Scored 1+75%
  • 50%Scored 2+25%
  • 50%Conceded 1+75%
  • 50%Conceded 2+50%
  • 75%Match over 1.575%
  • 50%Match over 2.575%
  • 25%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for 2. SNL matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.