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Northampton v Fleetwood Town, EFL League Two, Tue, 1 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 18. Tue, 1 Dec 2026

NorthamptonHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
Fleetwood TownAway
DWLLDLeague form, oldest to newestDLLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Sixfields Stadium. Photo: Dwadfish at English Wikipedia, Public domain, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Northampton have 4 scored home results and Fleetwood Town 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Northampton at home: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Fleetwood Town away: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Northampton scored 0.50 per home match (4 measured matches); Fleetwood Town scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Northampton: 2 wins; Fleetwood Town: 3 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Northampton at home and Fleetwood Town away.

Northampton at home

xG 0.66
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match0.5

Fleetwood Town away

xG 0.96
  • Shots per match13.2
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Northampton
0.53
Expected goals, Fleetwood Town
0.56
Most likely score
0-0 (33%)
Three or more goals
10%
Both clubs score
18%
Northampton score at least once
41%
Fleetwood Town score at least once
43%
Season sample
8 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Northampton win–
Draw–
Fleetwood Town win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Northampton goals, columns are Fleetwood Town goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
033%19%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
118%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Northampton 8 matches, Fleetwood Town 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Northampton wins
1
Draws
3
Fleetwood Town wins
Goals / meeting
1.50
9 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
0%
0 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 6 meetings
Northampton clean sheets
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Fleetwood Town clean sheets
67%
4 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.50
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.17
6 with card data
  1. Fleetwood Town v NorthamptonSat, 13 Apr 2024 · EFL League One 2023-242–0HT 2–0
  2. Northampton v Fleetwood TownSat, 9 Dec 2023 · EFL League One 2023-243–0HT 2–0
  3. Fleetwood Town v NorthamptonTue, 26 Jan 2021 · EFL League One 2020-210–0HT 0–0
  4. Northampton v Fleetwood TownTue, 1 Dec 2020 · EFL League One 2020-211–0HT 0–0
  5. Fleetwood Town v NorthamptonSat, 24 Mar 2018 · EFL League One 2017-182–0HT 1–0
  6. Northampton v Fleetwood TownSat, 12 Aug 2017 · EFL League One 2017-180–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Northampton at homeLDLDWL
Fleetwood Town awayWDDLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Northampton at home, Fleetwood Town away
  • 43%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 43%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 1.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    4 + 5 matches
  • 53%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 9.6
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 4.0
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 43%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Northampton at home, Fleetwood Town away
Northampton (home)Fleetwood Town (away)
23Position16
DDWLLast 5, oldest to newestWDDLL
4Played5
1.25Points per match1.00
25%Win %20%
0.50Scored / match1.00
0.50Conceded / match1.40
1.00Avg total goals2.40
25%Both scored60%
50%Clean sheets20%
50%Failed to score20%
0.66xG for0.96
1.10xG against2.10

Half by half

NorthamptonFleetwood Town
  • 0.251st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.252nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.80
  • 25%Leading at half-time20%
  • 25%1st half over 0.580%
  • 0%1st half over 1.540%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 0%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Northampton at home, Fleetwood Town away, this season.

Goals

NorthamptonFleetwood Town
  • 0.50Scored / match1.00
  • 0.50Conceded / match1.40
  • 1.00Match total / match2.40
  • 50%Scored 1+80%
  • 0%Scored 2+20%
  • 50%Conceded 1+80%
  • 0%Conceded 2+40%
  • 25%Match over 1.560%
  • 0%Match over 2.540%
  • 0%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

NorthamptonFleetwood Town
  • 11.00Shots for13.20
  • 10.25Shots against14.60
  • 3.25On target for3.80
  • 3.00On target against3.80
  • 5%Shot conversion8%
  • 0.66xG for0.96
  • 1.10xG against2.10

Corners

NorthamptonFleetwood Town
  • 5.25Corners for3.60
  • 3.00Corners against7.40
  • 8.25Match total11.00
  • 75%Over 7.580%
  • 50%Over 8.580%
  • 50%Over 9.580%
  • 50%Over 10.580%
  • 25%Over 11.560%

Cards

NorthamptonFleetwood Town
  • 1.50Cards for3.00
  • 2.00Cards against1.40
  • 3.50Match total4.40
  • 75%Over 2.580%
  • 50%Over 3.580%
  • 25%Over 4.560%
  • 0%Over 5.520%
  • 10.50Fouls committed13.20

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
14Exeter10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
18Shrewsbury10-611
21Oldham9-48
22Port Vale8-58
23Northampton8-37
24Crawley Town8-75
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.