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Odense v AGF, Danish Superliga, Sun, 7 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 20. Sun, 7 Mar 2027

OdenseHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
AGFAway
LWDDDLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Odense have 6 scored home results and AGF 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Odense at home: 0.83 points per match (6 measured matches); AGF away: 0.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Odense scored 0.67 per home match (6 measured matches); AGF scored 1.20 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.49 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 11 pooled club appearances (63.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Odense: 0 wins; AGF: 0 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Odense
1.13
Expected goals, AGF
1.32
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
44%
Both clubs score
50%
Odense score at least once
68%
AGF score at least once
73%
Season sample
13 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Odense win–
Draw–
AGF win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Odense goals, columns are AGF goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%11%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%13%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.56 goals) and away average (1.41 goals).

Sample. Odense 13 matches, AGF 9, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.583.1%16.9%
2.555.1%44.9%
3.541.6%58.4%
4.516.9%83.1%

First-half goals · 55 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.571.9%28.1%
1.542.1%57.9%
2.521.1%78.9%
3.55.3%94.7%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Odense wins
1
Draws
0
AGF wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
4 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Odense clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
AGF clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. AGF v OdenseSun, 23 Aug 2026 · Danish Superliga 2026-272–2HT 1–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Odense at homeWLLLDD
AGF awayLLLLWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Odense at home, AGF away
  • 65%
    Both teams scored
    League 60%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 98%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 84%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 37%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.98
    6 + 5 matches
  • 68%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 45%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 42%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Odense at home, AGF away
Odense (home)AGF (away)
12Position14
LLLDDLast 5, oldest to newestDLLLD
6Played5
0.83Points per match0.40
17%Win %0%
0.67Scored / match1.20
2.33Conceded / match2.00
3.00Avg total goals3.20
50%Both scored80%
17%Clean sheets0%
33%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

OdenseAGF
  • 0.251st half scored / match0.40
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.80
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match1.40
  • 0%Leading at half-time20%
  • 75%1st half over 0.560%
  • 50%1st half over 1.540%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 0%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Odense at home, AGF away, this season.

Goals

OdenseAGF
  • 0.67Scored / match1.20
  • 2.33Conceded / match2.00
  • 3.00Match total / match3.20
  • 67%Scored 1+80%
  • 0%Scored 2+40%
  • 83%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+100%
  • 83%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.580%
  • 33%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
10Randers FC13-813
11Silkeborg13-312
12Odense13-1112
13Lyngby12-79
14Aarhus9-65
14AGF9-65
16Sonderjyske12-155
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Danish Superliga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.