Oldham vs Cheltenham stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 11. Tue, 3 Nov 2026

OldhamHome

vKick-off 19:45 UTC

CheltenhamAway

LLLLDLeague form, oldest to newestWDWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Boundary Park. Photo: Original uploader was Narniauk at English Wikipedia, Public domain, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Oldham have 5 scored home results and Cheltenham 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Oldham at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Cheltenham away: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Oldham scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Cheltenham scored 1.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 10 pooled club appearances (60.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 8. Oldham: 4 wins; Cheltenham: 2 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Oldham at home and Cheltenham away.

Oldham at home

xG 1.44

Shots per match15.8
On target per match5.3
Goals per match1.4

Cheltenham away

xG 1.20

Shots per match10.0
On target per match3.4
Goals per match1.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Oldham: 1.55
Expected goals, Cheltenham: 1.49
Most likely score: 1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals: 58%
Both clubs score: 61%
Oldham score at least once: 79%
Cheltenham score at least once: 77%
Season sample: 9 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Oldham win–

Draw–

Cheltenham win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Oldham goals, columns are Cheltenham goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

05%7%5%3%1%

17%11%8%4%2%

26%9%6%3%1%

33%4%3%2%1%

41%2%1%1%

51%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Oldham 9 matches, Cheltenham 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72.4%	27.6%
2.5	43.1%	56.9%
3.5	26.7%	73.3%
4.5	10.3%	89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65.5%	34.5%
1.5	31.0%	69.0%
2.5	7.8%	92.2%
3.5	1.7%	98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	65.4%	34.6%
9.5	61.5%	38.5%
10.5	47.1%	52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	98.1%	1.9%
1.5	89.4%	10.6%
2.5	73.1%	26.9%
3.5	56.7%	43.3%
4.5	44.2%	55.8%
5.5	26.0%	74.0%
6.5	12.5%	87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

8 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Oldham wins

Draws

Cheltenham wins

Goals / meeting

2.25

18 goals in 8 meetings

Both scored

38%

3 of 8 meetings

Over 1.5

88%

7 of 8 meetings

Over 2.5

50%

4 of 8 meetings

Over 3.5

0 of 8 meetings

Oldham clean sheets

38%

3 of 8 meetings

Cheltenham clean sheets

38%

3 of 8 meetings

Corners / meeting

10.50

8 with corner data

Cards / meeting

3.13

8 with card data

Oldham v CheltenhamSat, 17 Jan 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-262–1HT 1–1
Cheltenham v OldhamSat, 20 Sept 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-260–3HT 0–1
Cheltenham v OldhamTue, 26 Jan 2021 · EFL League Two 2020-212–0HT 0–0
Oldham v CheltenhamTue, 3 Nov 2020 · EFL League Two 2020-212–1HT 1–1
Cheltenham v OldhamSat, 4 Jan 2020 · EFL League Two 2019-203–0HT 1–0
Oldham v CheltenhamSat, 5 Oct 2019 · EFL League Two 2019-201–1HT 1–0
Cheltenham v OldhamFri, 19 Apr 2019 · EFL League Two 2018-190–0HT 0–0
Oldham v CheltenhamTue, 23 Oct 2018 · EFL League Two 2018-192–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Oldham at homeWWLWLD

Sat, 10 Octv Accrington0–0C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 26 Septv Salford1–4C 11–5 · Y 0–2
Tue, 22 Septv Fleetwood Town1–0C ––– · Y –––
Sat, 12 Septv Chesterfield1–2C 1–4 · Y 2–3
Sat, 29 Augv Swindon3–0C 14–4 · Y 0–3
Sat, 15 Augv Port Vale2–0C 1–6 · Y 2–4

Cheltenham awayLLDWDL

Sat, 3 Oct@ Accrington0–2C 2–8 · Y 2–3
Sat, 19 Sept@ Colchester1–1C 9–3 · Y 4–4
Sat, 12 Sept@ Crawley Town3–1C 3–8 · Y 2–4
Sat, 29 Aug@ Barnet2–2C 4–11 · Y 3–1
Sat, 22 Aug@ Swindon1–2C 5–2 · Y 1–1
Sat, 25 Apr@ Bristol Rvs0–4C 7–1 · Y 1–5

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Oldham at home, Cheltenham away

60%
Both teams scored
League 53%
5 + 5 matches
90%
Over 0.5 goals
League 91%
5 + 5 matches
90%
Over 1.5 goals
League 73%
5 + 5 matches
60%
Over 2.5 goals
League 43%
5 + 5 matches
30%
Over 3.5 goals
League 26%
5 + 5 matches
10%
Over 4.5 goals
League 10%
5 + 5 matches
2.8
Avg total goals
League 2.48
5 + 5 matches
60%
1st half over 0.5
League 66%
5 + 5 matches
20%
1st half over 1.5
League 31%
5 + 5 matches
11.3
Corners per match
League 10.11
4 + 5 matches
65%
Corners over 8.5
League 66%
4 + 5 matches
65%
Corners over 9.5
League 62%
4 + 5 matches
55%
Corners over 10.5
League 47%
4 + 5 matches
4.5
Cards per match
League 4.09
4 + 5 matches
65%
Cards over 3.5
League 57%
4 + 5 matches
55%
Cards over 4.5
League 44%
4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Oldham at home, Cheltenham away

Oldham (home)		Cheltenham (away)
21	Position	8
WWLLD	Last 5, oldest to newest	LDWDL
5	Played	5
1.40	Points per match	1.00
40%	Win %	20%
1.40	Scored / match	1.40
1.20	Conceded / match	1.60
2.60	Avg total goals	3.00
40%	Both scored	80%
60%	Clean sheets	0%
20%	Failed to score	20%
1.44	xG for	1.20
1.11	xG against	1.46

Half by half

OldhamCheltenham

0.401st half scored / match0.40
0.601st half conceded / match0.60
1.002nd half scored / match1.00
0.602nd half conceded / match1.00
20%Leading at half-time20%
60%1st half over 0.560%
20%1st half over 1.520%
80%2nd half over 0.5100%
80%2nd half over 1.580%
20%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Oldham at home, Cheltenham away, this season.

Goals

OldhamCheltenham

1.40Scored / match1.40
1.20Conceded / match1.60
2.60Match total / match3.00
80%Scored 1+80%
40%Scored 2+40%
40%Conceded 1+100%
40%Conceded 2+60%
80%Match over 1.5100%
60%Match over 2.560%
20%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

OldhamCheltenham

15.75Shots for10.00
11.25Shots against13.40
5.25On target for3.40
3.75On target against4.00
11%Shot conversion14%
1.44xG for1.20
1.11xG against1.46

Corners

OldhamCheltenham

6.75Corners for4.60
4.75Corners against6.40
11.50Match total11.00
50%Over 7.580%
50%Over 8.580%
50%Over 9.580%
50%Over 10.560%
50%Over 11.540%

Cards

OldhamCheltenham

1.00Cards for2.40
3.00Cards against2.60
4.00Match total5.00
75%Over 2.580%
50%Over 3.580%
50%Over 4.560%
25%Over 5.540%
12.75Fouls committed13.20

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
6	Walsall	9	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	0	15
9	Bristol Rvs	10	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	-1	14
19	Colchester	9	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	-3	7

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.