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Oldham v Grimsby, EFL League Two, Sat, 3 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 39. Sat, 3 Apr 2027

OldhamHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
GrimsbyAway
LLLLDLeague form, oldest to newestWWLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Boundary Park. Photo: Original uploader was Narniauk at English Wikipedia, Public domain, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Oldham have 5 scored home results and Grimsby 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Oldham at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Grimsby away: 0.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Oldham scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Grimsby scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 7. Oldham: 3 wins; Grimsby: 1 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Oldham at home and Grimsby away.

Oldham at home

xG 1.44
  • Shots per match15.8
  • On target per match5.3
  • Goals per match1.4

Grimsby away

xG 1.38
  • Shots per match13.5
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Oldham
1.06
Expected goals, Grimsby
1.21
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
40%
Both clubs score
46%
Oldham score at least once
66%
Grimsby score at least once
70%
Season sample
9 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Oldham win–
Draw–
Grimsby win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Oldham goals, columns are Grimsby goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%12%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%13%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%7%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Oldham 9 matches, Grimsby 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

7 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Oldham wins
3
Draws
1
Grimsby wins
Goals / meeting
1.86
13 goals in 7 meetings
Both scored
29%
2 of 7 meetings
Over 1.5
57%
4 of 7 meetings
Over 2.5
43%
3 of 7 meetings
Over 3.5
14%
1 of 7 meetings
Oldham clean sheets
71%
5 of 7 meetings
Grimsby clean sheets
29%
2 of 7 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.29
7 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.57
7 with card data
  1. Oldham v GrimsbySat, 14 Mar 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-261–0HT 0–0
  2. Grimsby v OldhamFri, 26 Dec 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  3. Oldham v GrimsbySat, 24 Apr 2021 · EFL League Two 2020-211–2HT 1–1
  4. Grimsby v OldhamTue, 29 Dec 2020 · EFL League Two 2020-210–0HT 0–0
  5. Oldham v GrimsbySat, 14 Sept 2019 · EFL League Two 2019-202–2HT 1–0
  6. Oldham v GrimsbySat, 30 Mar 2019 · EFL League Two 2018-192–0HT 1–0
  7. Grimsby v OldhamSat, 15 Sept 2018 · EFL League Two 2018-190–3HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Oldham at homeWWLWLD
Grimsby awayDDDLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Oldham at home, Grimsby away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 11.4
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.6
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Oldham at home, Grimsby away
Oldham (home)Grimsby (away)
21Position11
WWLLDLast 5, oldest to newestDDDLL
5Played5
1.40Points per match0.60
40%Win %0%
1.40Scored / match1.00
1.20Conceded / match1.40
2.60Avg total goals2.40
40%Both scored60%
60%Clean sheets20%
20%Failed to score40%
1.44xG for1.38
1.11xG against1.29

Half by half

OldhamGrimsby
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.80
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.60
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 20%Leading at half-time20%
  • 60%1st half over 0.560%
  • 20%1st half over 1.540%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.560%
  • 80%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 20%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Oldham at home, Grimsby away, this season.

Goals

OldhamGrimsby
  • 1.40Scored / match1.00
  • 1.20Conceded / match1.40
  • 2.60Match total / match2.40
  • 80%Scored 1+60%
  • 40%Scored 2+40%
  • 40%Conceded 1+80%
  • 40%Conceded 2+60%
  • 80%Match over 1.560%
  • 60%Match over 2.560%
  • 20%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

OldhamGrimsby
  • 15.75Shots for13.50
  • 11.25Shots against11.50
  • 5.25On target for4.00
  • 3.75On target against4.00
  • 11%Shot conversion9%
  • 1.44xG for1.38
  • 1.11xG against1.29

Corners

OldhamGrimsby
  • 6.75Corners for6.25
  • 4.75Corners against5.00
  • 11.50Match total11.25
  • 50%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.5100%
  • 50%Over 9.5100%
  • 50%Over 10.525%
  • 50%Over 11.525%

Cards

OldhamGrimsby
  • 1.00Cards for1.25
  • 3.00Cards against2.00
  • 4.00Match total3.25
  • 75%Over 2.550%
  • 50%Over 3.550%
  • 50%Over 4.525%
  • 25%Over 5.50%
  • 12.75Fouls committed11.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
9Bristol Rvs10-215
10Rochdale10-114
11Grimsby10213
12Newport County10113
13Tranmere10012
19Colchester9-310
20Rotherham10-410
21Oldham9-48
22Port Vale8-58
23Northampton8-37
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.