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Orgryte v Mjällby AIF, Allsvenskan, Thu, 29 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 26. Thu, 29 Oct 2026

OrgryteHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
Mjällby AIFAway
LDDLLLeague form, oldest to newestLDDLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Orgryte have 13 scored home results and Mjällby AIF 11 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Orgryte at home: 0.77 points per match (13 measured matches); Mjällby AIF away: 1.09 points per match (11 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Orgryte scored 1.54 per home match (13 measured matches); Mjällby AIF scored 1.45 away (11). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.47 per club appearance across 518 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 20 of 24 pooled club appearances (83.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Orgryte: 1 wins; Mjällby AIF: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 259 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Orgryte
1.45
Expected goals, Mjällby AIF
1.68
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
60%
Both clubs score
62%
Orgryte score at least once
77%
Mjällby AIF score at least once
81%
Season sample
28 and 23 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Orgryte win–
Draw–
Mjällby AIF win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Orgryte goals, columns are Mjällby AIF goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%7%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
16%11%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
25%8%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
32%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.27 goals).

Sample. Orgryte 28 matches, Mjällby AIF 23, the league 259, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 259 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.6%18.4%
2.552.1%47.9%
3.530.3%69.7%
4.518.0%82.0%

First-half goals · 179 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.4%32.6%
1.535.9%64.1%
2.519.3%80.7%
3.55.0%95.0%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Orgryte wins
0
Draws
0
Mjällby AIF wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Orgryte clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Mjällby AIF clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Mjällby AIF v OrgryteSat, 11 Apr 2026 · Allsvenskan 20260–2HT 0–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Orgryte at homeDLDDDL
Mjällby AIF awayLLLDDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Orgryte at home, Mjällby AIF away
  • 83%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    13 + 11 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    13 + 11 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    13 + 11 matches
  • 54%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    13 + 11 matches
  • 37%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 30%
    13 + 11 matches
  • 29%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    13 + 11 matches
  • 3.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.95
    13 + 11 matches
  • 77%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 46%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    11 + 11 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Orgryte at home, Mjällby AIF away
Orgryte (home)Mjällby AIF (away)
19Position16
LDDDLLast 5, oldest to newestDLLDD
13Played11
0.77Points per match1.09
8%Win %18%
1.54Scored / match1.45
1.85Conceded / match1.82
3.38Avg total goals3.27
92%Both scored73%
8%Clean sheets9%
8%Failed to score27%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

OrgryteMjällby AIF
  • 0.551st half scored / match0.64
  • 0.911st half conceded / match0.82
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.82
  • 0.912nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 9%Leading at half-time27%
  • 73%1st half over 0.582%
  • 46%1st half over 1.546%
  • 73%2nd half over 0.582%
  • 73%2nd half over 1.536%
  • 27%Scored in both halves18%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Orgryte at home, Mjällby AIF away, this season.

Goals

OrgryteMjällby AIF
  • 1.54Scored / match1.45
  • 1.85Conceded / match1.82
  • 3.38Match total / match3.27
  • 92%Scored 1+73%
  • 39%Scored 2+27%
  • 92%Conceded 1+91%
  • 54%Conceded 2+46%
  • 92%Match over 1.591%
  • 54%Match over 2.555%
  • 39%Match over 3.536%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026

#ClubPGDPts
14GAIS23730
15Degerfors29-2224
16Mjällby AIF23-1123
17Kalmar28-2423
18Mjallby22-1122
19Orgryte28-3519
20Halmstad28-2917
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Allsvenskan matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.