Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Ourense CF v Marino Luanco, Segunda Federación, Sun, 9 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 34. Sun, 9 May 2027

Ourense CFHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Marino LuancoAway
WLWDLLeague form, oldest to newestWLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Ourense CF have 3 scored home results and Marino Luanco 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Ourense CF at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Marino Luanco away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Ourense CF scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Marino Luanco scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.28 per club appearance across 456 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 6 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Ourense CF: 1 wins; Marino Luanco: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 228 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Ourense CF
1.65
Expected goals, Marino Luanco
0.92
Most likely score
1-0 (13%)
Three or more goals
48%
Both clubs score
49%
Ourense CF score at least once
81%
Marino Luanco score at least once
60%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Ourense CF win–
Draw–
Marino Luanco win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Ourense CF goals, columns are Marino Luanco goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
113%12%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
36%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.08 goals).

Sample. Ourense CF 6 matches, Marino Luanco 5, the league 228, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 228 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.569.1%30.9%
2.549.1%50.9%
3.527.0%73.0%
4.513.0%87.0%

First-half goals · 228 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.563.5%36.5%
1.530.0%70.0%
2.511.3%88.7%
3.52.2%97.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Ourense CF wins
0
Draws
0
Marino Luanco wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Ourense CF clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Marino Luanco clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Marino Luanco v Ourense CFSun, 13 Sept 2026 · Segunda Federación 2026-270–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Ourense CF at homeWLD
Marino Luanco awayWLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Ourense CF at home, Marino Luanco away
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 46%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 69%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 49%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.56
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 64%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 30%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Ourense CF at home, Marino Luanco away
Ourense CF (home)Marino Luanco (away)
22Position82
WLDLast 5, oldest to newestWLL
3Played3
1.33Points per match1.00
33%Win %33%
0.67Scored / match1.67
1.00Conceded / match2.33
1.67Avg total goals4.00
33%Both scored33%
33%Clean sheets33%
67%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Ourense CFMarino Luanco
  • 0.671st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.002nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.332nd half conceded / match1.67
  • 33%Leading at half-time33%
  • 67%1st half over 0.567%
  • 33%1st half over 1.567%
  • 33%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 0%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Ourense CF at home, Marino Luanco away, this season.

Goals

Ourense CFMarino Luanco
  • 0.67Scored / match1.67
  • 1.00Conceded / match2.33
  • 1.67Match total / match4.00
  • 33%Scored 1+67%
  • 33%Scored 2+67%
  • 67%Conceded 1+67%
  • 33%Conceded 2+67%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.5100%
  • 0%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Segunda Federación matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.