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Padova v Cremonese, Serie B, Sat, 9 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 20. Sat, 9 Jan 2027

PadovaHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
CremoneseAway
WDLWLLeague form, oldest to newestLWDDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Euganeo. Photo: LigaDue, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Padova have 2 scored home results and Cremonese 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Padova at home: 2.00 points per match (2 measured matches); Cremonese away: 0.67 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Padova scored 1.00 per home match (2 measured matches); Cremonese scored 0.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 114 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 5 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 3. Padova: 0 wins; Cremonese: 1 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Padova at home and Cremonese away.

Padova at home

xG 0.94
  • Shots per match9.0
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Cremonese away

xG 1.05
  • Shots per match17.0
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match0.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 57 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Padova
0.95
Expected goals, Cremonese
0.71
Most likely score
0-0 (19%)
Three or more goals
23%
Both clubs score
31%
Padova score at least once
61%
Cremonese score at least once
51%
Season sample
5 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Padova win–
Draw–
Cremonese win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Padova goals, columns are Cremonese goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
019%14%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
118%13%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.40 goals) and away average (1.23 goals).

Sample. Padova 5 matches, Cremonese 6, the league 57, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.6%25.4%
2.552.5%47.5%
3.527.1%72.9%
4.513.6%86.4%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.0%39.0%
1.523.7%76.3%
2.510.2%89.8%
3.53.4%96.6%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.7%42.3%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.580.8%19.2%
3.565.4%34.6%
4.542.3%57.7%
5.519.2%80.8%
6.515.4%84.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

3 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Padova wins
2
Draws
1
Cremonese wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
6 goals in 3 meetings
Both scored
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 1.5
67%
2 of 3 meetings
Over 2.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Over 3.5
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Padova clean sheets
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Cremonese clean sheets
33%
1 of 3 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.33
3 with corner data
Cards / meeting
2.67
3 with card data
  1. Cremonese v PadovaSun, 6 Sept 2026 · Serie B 2026-273–1HT 2–1
  2. Cremonese v PadovaSat, 9 Feb 2019 · Serie B 2018-190–0HT 0–0
  3. Padova v CremoneseSun, 23 Sept 2018 · Serie B 2018-191–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Padova at homeLWWWDW
Cremonese awayLWLWDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Padova at home, Cremonese away
  • 42%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 1.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.63
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 61%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 8.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.78
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 0%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 5.3
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 66%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 42%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Padova at home, Cremonese away
Padova (home)Cremonese (away)
11Position14
DWLast 5, oldest to newestLDD
2Played3
2.00Points per match0.67
50%Win %0%
1.00Scored / match0.67
0.50Conceded / match1.00
1.50Avg total goals1.67
50%Both scored33%
50%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score67%
0.94xG for1.05
1.74xG against1.15

Half by half

PadovaCremonese
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 50%Leading at half-time0%
  • 50%1st half over 0.567%
  • 0%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.533%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Padova at home, Cremonese away, this season.

Goals

PadovaCremonese
  • 1.00Scored / match0.67
  • 0.50Conceded / match1.00
  • 1.50Match total / match1.67
  • 100%Scored 1+33%
  • 0%Scored 2+33%
  • 50%Conceded 1+67%
  • 0%Conceded 2+33%
  • 50%Match over 1.533%
  • 0%Match over 2.533%
  • 0%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

PadovaCremonese
  • 9.00Shots for17.00
  • 17.00Shots against9.00
  • 3.00On target for4.00
  • 4.00On target against3.50
  • 11%Shot conversion6%
  • 0.94xG for1.05
  • 1.74xG against1.15

Corners

PadovaCremonese
  • 2.00Corners for4.50
  • 7.00Corners against3.50
  • 9.00Match total8.00
  • 100%Over 7.550%
  • 50%Over 8.550%
  • 50%Over 9.50%
  • 0%Over 10.50%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

PadovaCremonese
  • 4.00Cards for2.00
  • 1.50Cards against3.00
  • 5.50Match total5.00
  • 100%Over 2.5100%
  • 100%Over 3.5100%
  • 100%Over 4.5100%
  • 50%Over 5.50%
  • 17.00Fouls committed9.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
9Verona537
10Cesena6-17
11Padova5-17
12Arezzo6-77
13Virtus Entella616
14Cremonese6-26
15Juve Stabia6-36
16Empoli6-46
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie B matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.