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Palermo v Sudtirol, Serie B, Tue, 24 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 13. Tue, 24 Nov 2026

PalermoHome
vKick-off 19:00 UTC
SudtirolAway
WWDWWLeague form, oldest to newestDWDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Renzo Barbera. Photo: SonoGrazy, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Palermo have 3 scored home results and Sudtirol 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Palermo at home: 3.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Sudtirol away: 2.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Palermo scored 2.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Sudtirol scored 2.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 114 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 5 pooled club appearances (80.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 8. Palermo: 5 wins; Sudtirol: 2 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Palermo at home and Sudtirol away.

Palermo at home

xG 1.76
  • Shots per match17.3
  • On target per match6.3
  • Goals per match2.0

Sudtirol away

xG 1.02
  • Shots per match9.5
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match2.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 57 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Palermo
0.95
Expected goals, Sudtirol
1.24
Most likely score
0-1 (14%)
Three or more goals
37%
Both clubs score
43%
Palermo score at least once
61%
Sudtirol score at least once
71%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Palermo win–
Draw–
Sudtirol win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Palermo goals, columns are Sudtirol goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%14%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%13%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%6%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.40 goals) and away average (1.23 goals).

Sample. Palermo 6 matches, Sudtirol 6, the league 57, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 11 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.6%25.4%
2.552.5%47.5%
3.527.1%72.9%
4.513.6%86.4%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.0%39.0%
1.523.7%76.3%
2.510.2%89.8%
3.53.4%96.6%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.7%42.3%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.580.8%19.2%
3.565.4%34.6%
4.542.3%57.7%
5.519.2%80.8%
6.515.4%84.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

8 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Palermo wins
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol wins
Goals / meeting
2.38
19 goals in 8 meetings
Both scored
50%
4 of 8 meetings
Over 1.5
75%
6 of 8 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
4 of 8 meetings
Over 3.5
13%
1 of 8 meetings
Palermo clean sheets
38%
3 of 8 meetings
Sudtirol clean sheets
13%
1 of 8 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.13
8 with corner data
Cards / meeting
6.13
8 with card data
  1. Palermo v SudtirolSat, 21 Feb 2026 · Serie B 2025-263–0HT 2–0
  2. Sudtirol v PalermoSun, 14 Sept 2025 · Serie B 2025-260–2HT 0–1
  3. Palermo v SudtirolThu, 1 May 2025 · Serie B 2024-251–2HT 1–0
  4. Sudtirol v PalermoMon, 30 Sept 2024 · Serie B 2024-251–3HT 0–1
  5. Sudtirol v PalermoFri, 10 May 2024 · Serie B 2023-240–1HT 0–0
  6. Palermo v SudtirolSun, 1 Oct 2023 · Serie B 2023-242–1HT 0–1
  7. Sudtirol v PalermoSat, 25 Feb 2023 · Serie B 2022-231–1HT 1–0
  8. Palermo v SudtirolSat, 1 Oct 2022 · Serie B 2022-230–1HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Palermo at homeWWWWWW
Sudtirol awayLLDDLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Palermo at home, Sudtirol away
  • 83%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 42%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.63
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 61%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 11.9
    Corners per match
    League 9.78
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.8
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 66%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 42%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Palermo at home, Sudtirol away
Palermo (home)Sudtirol (away)
1Position2
WWWLast 5, oldest to newestDW
3Played2
3.00Points per match2.00
100%Win %50%
2.00Scored / match2.50
0.67Conceded / match1.00
2.67Avg total goals3.50
67%Both scored100%
33%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score0%
1.76xG for1.02
1.30xG against1.88

Half by half

PalermoSudtirol
  • 1.331st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.00
  • 0.672nd half scored / match2.00
  • 0.332nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 67%Leading at half-time50%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 67%1st half over 1.50%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 67%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Palermo at home, Sudtirol away, this season.

Goals

PalermoSudtirol
  • 2.00Scored / match2.50
  • 0.67Conceded / match1.00
  • 2.67Match total / match3.50
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 67%Scored 2+50%
  • 67%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+0%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 67%Match over 2.550%
  • 33%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

PalermoSudtirol
  • 17.33Shots for9.50
  • 15.67Shots against18.00
  • 6.33On target for3.50
  • 4.67On target against4.00
  • 12%Shot conversion26%
  • 1.76xG for1.02
  • 1.30xG against1.88

Corners

PalermoSudtirol
  • 5.00Corners for1.50
  • 7.33Corners against10.00
  • 12.33Match total11.50
  • 67%Over 7.5100%
  • 67%Over 8.5100%
  • 67%Over 9.5100%
  • 67%Over 10.5100%
  • 67%Over 11.550%

Cards

PalermoSudtirol
  • 2.67Cards for1.50
  • 2.00Cards against1.50
  • 4.67Match total3.00
  • 100%Over 2.550%
  • 100%Over 3.550%
  • 67%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 15.00Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Palermo6716
2Sudtirol6612
3Mantova5511
4Ascoli6311
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie B matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.