Port Vale vs Gillingham stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 26. Tue, 19 Jan 2027

Port ValeHome

vKick-off 19:45 UTC

GillinghamAway

LLWLWLeague form, oldest to newestWWLDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Vale Park. Photo: User:Oldelpaso, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Port Vale have 4 scored home results and Gillingham 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Port Vale at home: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Gillingham away: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Port Vale scored 0.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Gillingham scored 1.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Port Vale: 0 wins; Gillingham: 2 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Port Vale at home and Gillingham away.

Port Vale at home

xG 1.40

Shots per match11.3
On target per match4.0
Goals per match0.8

Gillingham away

xG 0.98

Shots per match9.5
On target per match2.5
Goals per match1.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Port Vale: 0.48
Expected goals, Gillingham: 1.09
Most likely score: 0-1 (23%)
Three or more goals: 21%
Both clubs score: 25%
Port Vale score at least once: 38%
Gillingham score at least once: 66%
Season sample: 8 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Port Vale win–

Draw–

Gillingham win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Port Vale goals, columns are Gillingham goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

021%23%12%4%1%

110%11%6%2%1%

22%3%1%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Port Vale 8 matches, Gillingham 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	72.4%	27.6%
2.5	43.1%	56.9%
3.5	26.7%	73.3%
4.5	10.3%	89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	65.5%	34.5%
1.5	31.0%	69.0%
2.5	7.8%	92.2%
3.5	1.7%	98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	65.4%	34.6%
9.5	61.5%	38.5%
10.5	47.1%	52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	98.1%	1.9%
1.5	89.4%	10.6%
2.5	73.1%	26.9%
3.5	56.7%	43.3%
4.5	44.2%	55.8%
5.5	26.0%	74.0%
6.5	12.5%	87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Port Vale wins

Draws

Gillingham wins

Goals / meeting

1.00

2 goals in 2 meetings · small sample

Both scored