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Portadown FC v Larne FC, NIFL Premiership, Tue, 29 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 23. Tue, 29 Dec 2026

Portadown FCHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
Larne FCAway
DLLWDLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Portadown FC have 6 scored home results and Larne FC 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Portadown FC at home: 0.83 points per match (6 measured matches); Larne FC away: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Portadown FC scored 0.67 per home match (6 measured matches); Larne FC scored 2.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.35 per club appearance across 124 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 10 pooled club appearances (30.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Portadown FC: 0 wins; Larne FC: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 62 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Portadown FC
0.23
Expected goals, Larne FC
2.88
Most likely score
0-2 (19%)
Three or more goals
60%
Both clubs score
19%
Portadown FC score at least once
21%
Larne FC score at least once
94%
Season sample
11 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Portadown FC win–
Draw–
Larne FC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Portadown FC goals, columns are Larne FC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%13%19%18%13%7%4%1%
11%3%4%4%3%2%1%under 1%
2under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.35 goals) and away average (1.35 goals).

Sample. Portadown FC 11 matches, Larne FC 7, the league 62, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 19 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.1%21.9%
2.551.6%48.4%
3.528.1%71.9%
4.512.5%87.5%

First-half goals · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.568.8%31.3%
1.534.4%65.6%
2.514.1%85.9%
3.54.7%95.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Portadown FC wins
0
Draws
1
Larne FC wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Portadown FC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Larne FC clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Portadown FC v Larne FCSat, 12 Sept 2026 · NIFL Premiership 2026-270–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Portadown FC at homeLLLDWD
Larne FC awayDDWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Portadown FC at home, Larne FC away
  • 29%
    Both teams scored
    League 47%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 79%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 71%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 42%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 21%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 11%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.71
    6 + 4 matches
  • 79%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 69%
    6 + 4 matches
  • 29%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    6 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Portadown FC at home, Larne FC away
Portadown FC (home)Larne FC (away)
11Position3
LLDWDLast 5, oldest to newestDWWW
6Played4
0.83Points per match2.50
17%Win %75%
0.67Scored / match2.50
1.33Conceded / match0.50
2.00Avg total goals3.00
33%Both scored25%
17%Clean sheets75%
67%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Portadown FCLarne FC
  • 0.171st half scored / match1.25
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.502nd half scored / match1.25
  • 0.332nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time75%
  • 83%1st half over 0.575%
  • 33%1st half over 1.525%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 17%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 17%Scored in both halves75%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Portadown FC at home, Larne FC away, this season.

Goals

Portadown FCLarne FC
  • 0.67Scored / match2.50
  • 1.33Conceded / match0.50
  • 2.00Match total / match3.00
  • 33%Scored 1+75%
  • 17%Scored 2+75%
  • 83%Conceded 1+25%
  • 33%Conceded 2+25%
  • 67%Match over 1.575%
  • 33%Match over 2.550%
  • 17%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Coleraine FC111328
2Linfield10825
3Larne FC71219
4Glentoran11517
5Carrick Rangers11216
9Cliftonville FC11-112
10Limavady United10-512
11Portadown FC11-125
12Bangor FC11-145
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for NIFL Premiership matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.