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Preston v Derby, EFL Championship, Sat, 26 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 23. Sat, 26 Dec 2026

PrestonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
DerbyAway
WLLDLLeague form, oldest to newestLLLDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Deepdale. Photo: Hudson6dogs, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Preston have 5 scored home results and Derby 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Preston at home: 0.60 points per match (5 measured matches); Derby away: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Preston scored 0.80 per home match (5 measured matches); Derby scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 9 pooled club appearances (55.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Preston: 3 wins; Derby: 5 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Preston at home and Derby away.

Preston at home

xG 1.34
  • Shots per match12.5
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match0.8

Derby away

xG 0.85
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Preston
1.16
Expected goals, Derby
0.98
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
36%
Both clubs score
43%
Preston score at least once
69%
Derby score at least once
63%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Preston win–
Draw–
Derby win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Preston goals, columns are Derby goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
012%12%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%13%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Preston 9 matches, Derby 9, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.7%21.3%
2.562.0%38.0%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.510.2%89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.7%21.3%
1.539.8%60.2%
2.516.7%83.3%
3.58.3%91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.570.1%29.9%
9.558.8%41.2%
10.549.5%50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.8%7.2%
2.575.3%24.7%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.536.1%63.9%
5.518.6%81.4%
6.512.4%87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Preston wins
2
Draws
5
Derby wins
Goals / meeting
1.30
13 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Preston clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Derby clean sheets
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.50
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.10
10 with card data
  1. Preston v DerbySat, 17 Jan 2026 · EFL Championship 2025-260–1HT 0–0
  2. Derby v PrestonSat, 20 Sept 2025 · EFL Championship 2025-260–1HT 0–1
  3. Derby v PrestonWed, 2 Apr 2025 · EFL Championship 2024-252–0HT 0–0
  4. Preston v DerbySat, 23 Nov 2024 · EFL Championship 2024-251–1HT 1–1
  5. Derby v PrestonSat, 2 Apr 2022 · EFL Championship 2021-221–0HT 0–0
  6. Preston v DerbySat, 16 Oct 2021 · EFL Championship 2021-220–0HT 0–0
  7. Preston v DerbyTue, 20 Apr 2021 · EFL Championship 2020-213–0HT 1–0
  8. Derby v PrestonSat, 26 Dec 2020 · EFL Championship 2020-210–1HT 0–0
  9. Preston v DerbyWed, 1 Jul 2020 · EFL Championship 2019-200–1HT 0–1
  10. Derby v PrestonSat, 23 Nov 2019 · EFL Championship 2019-201–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Preston at homeLLLWLL
Derby awayLWLWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Preston at home, Derby away
  • 55%
    Both teams scored
    League 67%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 55%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 20%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.85
    5 + 4 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 10%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 11.5
    Corners per match
    League 10.60
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.6
    Cards per match
    League 3.92
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Preston at home, Derby away
Preston (home)Derby (away)
24Position23
LLWLLLast 5, oldest to newestLWLD
5Played4
0.60Points per match1.00
20%Win %25%
0.80Scored / match1.00
1.80Conceded / match1.50
2.60Avg total goals2.50
60%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets25%
40%Failed to score25%
1.34xG for0.85
1.29xG against1.52

Half by half

PrestonDerby
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.401st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.402nd half scored / match0.50
  • 1.402nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 20%Leading at half-time50%
  • 60%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 20%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 0%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Preston at home, Derby away, this season.

Goals

PrestonDerby
  • 0.80Scored / match1.00
  • 1.80Conceded / match1.50
  • 2.60Match total / match2.50
  • 60%Scored 1+75%
  • 20%Scored 2+25%
  • 100%Conceded 1+75%
  • 40%Conceded 2+50%
  • 60%Match over 1.5100%
  • 60%Match over 2.550%
  • 40%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

PrestonDerby
  • 12.50Shots for11.00
  • 12.25Shots against15.00
  • 3.00On target for3.75
  • 5.00On target against4.00
  • 8%Shot conversion9%
  • 1.34xG for0.85
  • 1.29xG against1.52

Corners

PrestonDerby
  • 7.25Corners for4.50
  • 5.00Corners against6.25
  • 12.25Match total10.75
  • 75%Over 7.5100%
  • 75%Over 8.5100%
  • 50%Over 9.575%
  • 50%Over 10.550%
  • 50%Over 11.525%

Cards

PrestonDerby
  • 2.75Cards for2.25
  • 1.00Cards against1.25
  • 3.75Match total3.50
  • 50%Over 2.575%
  • 50%Over 3.525%
  • 50%Over 4.525%
  • 25%Over 5.525%
  • 10.25Fouls committed14.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
21Cardiff9-37
22Burnley9-47
23Derby9-76
24Preston9-84
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.