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Quevilly - Rouen Métropole v Aubagne FC, Ligue 3, Sat, 12 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 15. Sat, 12 Dec 2026

Quevilly - Rouen MétropoleHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Aubagne FCAway
DWDDLLeague form, oldest to newestDLLWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Quevilly - Rouen Métropole have 4 scored home results and Aubagne FC 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Quevilly - Rouen Métropole at home: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Aubagne FC away: 0.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Quevilly - Rouen Métropole scored 1.50 per home match (4 measured matches); Aubagne FC scored 0.60 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.19 per club appearance across 162 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 9 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 81 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Quevilly - Rouen Métropole
1.10
Expected goals, Aubagne FC
0.66
Most likely score
1-0 (19%)
Three or more goals
26%
Both clubs score
32%
Quevilly - Rouen Métropole score at least once
67%
Aubagne FC score at least once
49%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Quevilly - Rouen Métropole win–
Draw–
Aubagne FC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Quevilly - Rouen Métropole goals, columns are Aubagne FC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
017%11%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
119%13%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.32 goals) and away average (1.06 goals).

Sample. Quevilly - Rouen Métropole 9 matches, Aubagne FC 9, the league 81, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 81 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.573.5%26.5%
2.539.8%60.2%
3.519.3%80.7%
4.512.0%88.0%

First-half goals · 81 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.572.3%27.7%
1.530.1%69.9%
2.57.2%92.8%
3.53.6%96.4%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Quevilly - Rouen Métropole at homeDWWD
Aubagne FC awayDLDLWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Quevilly - Rouen Métropole at home, Aubagne FC away
  • 70%
    Both teams scored
    League 44%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 90%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 74%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 45%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 39%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 19%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 11%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 2.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.38
    4 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 23%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 30%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Quevilly - Rouen Métropole at home, Aubagne FC away
Quevilly - Rouen Métropole (home)Aubagne FC (away)
13Position16
DWWDLast 5, oldest to newestLDLWL
4Played5
2.00Points per match0.80
50%Win %20%
1.50Scored / match0.60
1.00Conceded / match1.20
2.50Avg total goals1.80
100%Both scored40%
0%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score60%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Quevilly - Rouen MétropoleAubagne FC
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.251st half conceded / match0.40
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.20
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match0.80
  • 75%Leading at half-time20%
  • 100%1st half over 0.560%
  • 25%1st half over 1.520%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.560%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.520%
  • 50%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Quevilly - Rouen Métropole at home, Aubagne FC away, this season.

Goals

Quevilly - Rouen MétropoleAubagne FC
  • 1.50Scored / match0.60
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.20
  • 2.50Match total / match1.80
  • 100%Scored 1+40%
  • 50%Scored 2+20%
  • 100%Conceded 1+80%
  • 0%Conceded 2+20%
  • 100%Match over 1.540%
  • 50%Match over 2.540%
  • 0%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Ligue 3 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.