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Racing FC Union Luxembourg v Progrès Niederkorn, Division Nationale, Sun, 21 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 22. Sun, 21 Mar 2027

Racing FC Union LuxembourgHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Progrès NiederkornAway
LDWWDLeague form, oldest to newestLLWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Racing FC Union Luxembourg have 4 scored home results and Progrès Niederkorn 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Progrès Niederkorn away: 2.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Racing FC Union Luxembourg scored 4.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Progrès Niederkorn scored 2.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.72 per club appearance across 128 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 8 pooled club appearances (62.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Racing FC Union Luxembourg: 0 wins; Progrès Niederkorn: 0 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 64 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.02
Expected goals, Progrès Niederkorn
0.89
Most likely score
1-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
30%
Both clubs score
37%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg score at least once
64%
Progrès Niederkorn score at least once
59%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg win–
Draw–
Progrès Niederkorn win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Racing FC Union Luxembourg goals, columns are Progrès Niederkorn goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
015%13%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%13%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
28%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.83 goals) and away average (1.61 goals).

Sample. Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 matches, Progrès Niederkorn 8, the league 64, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 9 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 64 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.583.3%16.7%
2.566.7%33.3%
3.540.9%59.1%
4.531.8%68.2%

First-half goals · 64 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.580.3%19.7%
1.542.4%57.6%
2.527.3%72.7%
3.59.1%90.9%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins
1
Draws
0
Progrès Niederkorn wins
Goals / meeting
0.00
0 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Racing FC Union Luxembourg clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Progrès Niederkorn clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Progrès Niederkorn v Racing FC Union LuxembourgWed, 16 Sept 2026 · Division Nationale 2026-270–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Racing FC Union Luxembourg at homeWWDW
Progrès Niederkorn awayWWLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home, Progrès Niederkorn away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 50%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 84%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 67%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 31%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 4.0
    Avg total goals
    League 3.44
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 81%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 42%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home, Progrès Niederkorn away
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (home)Progrès Niederkorn (away)
4Position5
WWDWLast 5, oldest to newestWWLW
4Played4
2.50Points per match2.25
75%Win %75%
4.25Scored / match2.00
1.00Conceded / match0.75
5.25Avg total goals2.75
75%Both scored50%
25%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Racing FC Union LuxembourgProgrès Niederkorn
  • 2.251st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.00
  • 2.002nd half scored / match1.25
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.75
  • 75%Leading at half-time75%
  • 75%1st half over 0.575%
  • 75%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 50%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home, Progrès Niederkorn away, this season.

Goals

Racing FC Union LuxembourgProgrès Niederkorn
  • 4.25Scored / match2.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match0.75
  • 5.25Match total / match2.75
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 100%Scored 2+50%
  • 75%Conceded 1+50%
  • 25%Conceded 2+25%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 100%Match over 2.575%
  • 100%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Division Nationale matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.