Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Real Madrid v Elche, La Liga, Wed, 21 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 33. Wed, 21 Apr 2027

Real MadridHome
vKick-off 19:00 UTC
ElcheAway
LWWLWLeague form, oldest to newestLLDLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Bernabéu. Photo: Zoser, CC BY 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Real Madrid have 4 scored home results and Elche 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Real Madrid at home: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Elche away: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Real Madrid scored 3.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Elche scored 1.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.50 per club appearance across 146 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 8 pooled club appearances (75.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 9. Real Madrid: 6 wins; Elche: 0 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Real Madrid at home and Elche away.

Real Madrid at home

xG 2.72
  • Shots per match21.0
  • On target per match10.0
  • Goals per match3.3

Elche away

xG 1.18
  • Shots per match10.3
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match1.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 73 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Real Madrid
4.35
Expected goals, Elche
0.91
Most likely score
4-0 (8%)
Three or more goals
89%
Both clubs score
59%
Real Madrid score at least once
99%
Elche score at least once
60%
Season sample
8 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Real Madrid win–
Draw–
Elche win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Real Madrid goals, columns are Elche goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
12%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
38%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
48%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
57%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
65%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
73%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.70 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Real Madrid 8 matches, Elche 7, the league 73, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.0%24.0%
2.556.0%44.0%
3.537.3%62.7%
4.522.7%77.3%

First-half goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.7%33.3%
1.546.7%53.3%
2.517.3%82.7%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.550.7%49.3%
9.549.3%50.7%
10.539.4%60.6%

Yellow + red card events · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.8%4.2%
1.587.3%12.7%
2.576.1%23.9%
3.562.0%38.0%
4.547.9%52.1%
5.533.8%66.2%
6.514.1%85.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

9 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

6
Real Madrid wins
3
Draws
0
Elche wins
Goals / meeting
3.67
33 goals in 9 meetings
Both scored
78%
7 of 9 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
9 of 9 meetings
Over 2.5
89%
8 of 9 meetings
Over 3.5
56%
5 of 9 meetings
Real Madrid clean sheets
22%
2 of 9 meetings
Elche clean sheets
0%
0 of 9 meetings
Corners / meeting
8.89
9 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.89
9 with card data
  1. Elche v Real MadridTue, 15 Sept 2026 · La Liga 2026-272–3HT 0–2
  2. Real Madrid v ElcheSat, 14 Mar 2026 · La Liga 2025-264–1HT 2–0
  3. Elche v Real MadridSun, 23 Nov 2025 · La Liga 2025-262–2HT 0–0
  4. Real Madrid v ElcheWed, 15 Feb 2023 · La Liga 2022-234–0HT 3–0
  5. Elche v Real MadridWed, 19 Oct 2022 · La Liga 2022-230–3HT 0–1
  6. Real Madrid v ElcheSun, 23 Jan 2022 · La Liga 2021-222–2HT 0–1
  7. Elche v Real MadridSat, 30 Oct 2021 · La Liga 2021-221–2HT 0–1
  8. Real Madrid v ElcheSat, 13 Mar 2021 · La Liga 2020-212–1HT 0–0
  9. Elche v Real MadridWed, 30 Dec 2020 · La Liga 2020-211–1HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Real Madrid at homeWDWWWW
Elche awayLDDLDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Real Madrid at home, Elche away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 22%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 3.00
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 11.6
    Corners per match
    League 9.65
    3 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 51%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 49%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 39%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 3.8
    Cards per match
    League 4.29
    3 + 4 matches
  • 54%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 62%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 42%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 48%
    3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Real Madrid at home, Elche away
Real Madrid (home)Elche (away)
3Position18
WWWWLast 5, oldest to newestDLDW
4Played4
3.00Points per match1.25
100%Win %25%
3.25Scored / match1.75
0.50Conceded / match1.50
3.75Avg total goals3.25
50%Both scored100%
50%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score0%
2.72xG for1.18
0.83xG against1.38

Half by half

Real MadridElche
  • 1.751st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.251st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.502nd half scored / match1.25
  • 0.252nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 50%Leading at half-time25%
  • 75%1st half over 0.575%
  • 75%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 75%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Real Madrid at home, Elche away, this season.

Goals

Real MadridElche
  • 3.25Scored / match1.75
  • 0.50Conceded / match1.50
  • 3.75Match total / match3.25
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 75%Scored 2+50%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+25%
  • 75%Match over 1.5100%
  • 75%Match over 2.550%
  • 75%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

Real MadridElche
  • 21.00Shots for10.25
  • 14.00Shots against15.75
  • 10.00On target for5.00
  • 3.67On target against4.00
  • 19%Shot conversion17%
  • 2.72xG for1.18
  • 0.83xG against1.38

Corners

Real MadridElche
  • 8.00Corners for5.00
  • 6.00Corners against4.25
  • 14.00Match total9.25
  • 100%Over 7.575%
  • 100%Over 8.525%
  • 100%Over 9.525%
  • 100%Over 10.525%
  • 67%Over 11.525%

Cards

Real MadridElche
  • 1.00Cards for2.25
  • 2.00Cards against2.25
  • 3.00Match total4.50
  • 33%Over 2.5100%
  • 33%Over 3.575%
  • 33%Over 4.550%
  • 33%Over 5.525%
  • 8.33Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Barcelona82724
2Ath Madrid81019
3Real Madrid81118
4Betis7216
5Sevilla7113
16Santander7-107
17Levante6-45
18Elche7-65
19Malaga8-94
19Valencia7-94
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for La Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.