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Reggina v Modica, Serie D, Girone I, Sun, 10 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 19. Sun, 10 Jan 2027

RegginaHome
vKick-off 13:30 UTC
ModicaAway
WWWWLLeague form, oldest to newestLLWLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Reggina have 3 scored home results and Modica 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Reggina at home: 3.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Modica away: 0.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Reggina scored 3.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Modica scored 0.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.25 per club appearance across 106 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 6 pooled club appearances (16.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Reggina: 1 wins; Modica: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 53 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Reggina
2.07
Expected goals, Modica
0.10
Most likely score
2-0 (24%)
Three or more goals
37%
Both clubs score
8%
Reggina score at least once
87%
Modica score at least once
10%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Reggina win–
Draw–
Modica win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Reggina goals, columns are Modica goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
124%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
224%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
317%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
49%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
54%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (0.94 goals).

Sample. Reggina 6 matches, Modica 6, the league 53, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 25 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.567.3%32.7%
2.545.5%54.5%
3.525.5%74.5%
4.512.7%87.3%

First-half goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.560.0%40.0%
1.523.6%76.4%
2.59.1%90.9%
3.51.8%98.2%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Reggina wins
0
Draws
0
Modica wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Reggina clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Modica clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Modica v RegginaSun, 13 Sept 2026 · Serie D, Girone I 2026-270–1HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Reggina at homeLWWWWW
Modica awayDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Reggina at home, Modica away
  • 17%
    Both teams scored
    League 38%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 68%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 45%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 25%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 11%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.51
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 60%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Reggina at home, Modica away
Reggina (home)Modica (away)
1Position12
WWWLast 5, oldest to newestDLL
3Played3
3.00Points per match0.33
100%Win %0%
3.67Scored / match0.67
0.00Conceded / match1.33
3.67Avg total goals2.00
0%Both scored33%
100%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score67%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

RegginaModica
  • 1.331st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 2.332nd half scored / match0.33
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 67%Leading at half-time0%
  • 67%1st half over 0.567%
  • 67%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 67%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Reggina at home, Modica away, this season.

Goals

RegginaModica
  • 3.67Scored / match0.67
  • 0.00Conceded / match1.33
  • 3.67Match total / match2.00
  • 100%Scored 1+33%
  • 100%Scored 2+33%
  • 0%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+33%
  • 100%Match over 1.533%
  • 67%Match over 2.533%
  • 67%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie D, Girone I matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.