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Rotherham v Walsall, EFL League Two, Sat, 12 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 19. Sat, 12 Dec 2026

RotherhamHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
WalsallAway
DWDLLLeague form, oldest to newestDDWDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

New York Stadium. Photo: dom fellowes from UK, CC BY 2.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Rotherham have 5 scored home results and Walsall 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Rotherham at home: 1.20 points per match (5 measured matches); Walsall away: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Rotherham scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Walsall scored 1.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 10 pooled club appearances (80.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Rotherham: 2 wins; Walsall: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Rotherham at home and Walsall away.

Rotherham at home

xG 1.60
  • Shots per match13.5
  • On target per match4.8
  • Goals per match1.6

Walsall away

xG 1.41
  • Shots per match11.5
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match1.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Rotherham
0.77
Expected goals, Walsall
1.37
Most likely score
0-1 (16%)
Three or more goals
36%
Both clubs score
40%
Rotherham score at least once
54%
Walsall score at least once
75%
Season sample
10 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Rotherham win–
Draw–
Walsall win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Rotherham goals, columns are Walsall goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
012%16%11%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%12%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%5%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Rotherham 10 matches, Walsall 9, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Rotherham wins
0
Draws
0
Walsall wins
Goals / meeting
4.50
9 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Rotherham clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Walsall clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
8.00
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
2.00
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Walsall v RotherhamSat, 30 Dec 2017 · EFL League One 2017-181–2HT 1–1
  2. Rotherham v WalsallTue, 12 Sept 2017 · EFL League One 2017-185–1HT 4–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Rotherham at homeDWDDLL
Walsall awayWWDDDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Rotherham at home, Walsall away
  • 80%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 9.9
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.4
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Rotherham at home, Walsall away
Rotherham (home)Walsall (away)
20Position6
DWDDLLast 5, oldest to newestWDDDD
5Played5
1.20Points per match1.40
20%Win %20%
1.60Scored / match1.40
2.00Conceded / match0.80
3.60Avg total goals2.20
100%Both scored60%
0%Clean sheets40%
0%Failed to score20%
1.60xG for1.41
1.30xG against1.72

Half by half

RotherhamWalsall
  • 1.201st half scored / match0.20
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.00
  • 0.402nd half scored / match1.20
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.80
  • 20%Leading at half-time20%
  • 100%1st half over 0.520%
  • 80%1st half over 1.50%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.580%
  • 40%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Rotherham at home, Walsall away, this season.

Goals

RotherhamWalsall
  • 1.60Scored / match1.40
  • 2.00Conceded / match0.80
  • 3.60Match total / match2.20
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 40%Scored 2+40%
  • 100%Conceded 1+60%
  • 40%Conceded 2+20%
  • 100%Match over 1.580%
  • 60%Match over 2.540%
  • 40%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

RotherhamWalsall
  • 13.50Shots for11.50
  • 9.75Shots against17.75
  • 4.75On target for3.25
  • 3.00On target against6.50
  • 13%Shot conversion13%
  • 1.60xG for1.41
  • 1.30xG against1.72

Corners

RotherhamWalsall
  • 3.50Corners for6.50
  • 3.50Corners against6.25
  • 7.00Match total12.75
  • 25%Over 7.5100%
  • 25%Over 8.5100%
  • 25%Over 9.5100%
  • 25%Over 10.5100%
  • 25%Over 11.575%

Cards

RotherhamWalsall
  • 2.00Cards for2.00
  • 1.75Cards against1.00
  • 3.75Match total3.00
  • 75%Over 2.550%
  • 25%Over 3.525%
  • 25%Over 4.525%
  • 25%Over 5.525%
  • 14.75Fouls committed13.25

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
4Gillingham10516
5York9615
6Walsall9615
7Chesterfield10315
8Cheltenham10015
18Shrewsbury10-611
19Colchester9-310
20Rotherham10-410
21Oldham9-48
22Port Vale8-58
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.