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Sagan Tosu v Kataller Toyama, J2 League, Sat, 7 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 16. Sat, 7 Nov 2026

Sagan TosuHome
vKick-off 05:00 UTC
Kataller ToyamaAway
LLLLWLeague form, oldest to newestDWDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Sagan Tosu have 5 scored home results and Kataller Toyama 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Sagan Tosu at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Kataller Toyama away: 2.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Sagan Tosu scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Kataller Toyama scored 1.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.27 per club appearance across 192 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 10 pooled club appearances (30.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Sagan Tosu: 1 wins; Kataller Toyama: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 96 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Sagan Tosu
0.68
Expected goals, Kataller Toyama
1.48
Most likely score
0-1 (17%)
Three or more goals
37%
Both clubs score
38%
Sagan Tosu score at least once
49%
Kataller Toyama score at least once
77%
Season sample
9 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Sagan Tosu win–
Draw–
Kataller Toyama win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Sagan Tosu goals, columns are Kataller Toyama goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%17%13%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%
18%12%9%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%
23%4%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.41 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Sagan Tosu 9 matches, Kataller Toyama 10, the league 96, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 96 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.546.9%53.1%
3.525.5%74.5%
4.514.3%85.7%

First-half goals · 96 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.3%33.7%
1.532.7%67.3%
2.511.2%88.8%
3.55.1%94.9%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Sagan Tosu wins
0
Draws
0
Kataller Toyama wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
4 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Sagan Tosu clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Kataller Toyama clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Sagan Tosu v Kataller ToyamaWed, 26 Aug 2026 · Emperor Cup 20264–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Sagan Tosu at homeLWWLDW
Kataller Toyama awayWLWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Sagan Tosu at home, Kataller Toyama away
  • 30%
    Both teams scored
    League 51%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 47%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 25%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.53
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 32%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Sagan Tosu at home, Kataller Toyama away
Sagan Tosu (home)Kataller Toyama (away)
16Position4
WLWLWLast 5, oldest to newestLWWWW
5Played5
1.80Points per match2.40
60%Win %80%
1.40Scored / match1.80
1.20Conceded / match0.60
2.60Avg total goals2.40
40%Both scored20%
60%Clean sheets60%
0%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Sagan TosuKataller Toyama
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.20
  • 1.002nd half scored / match1.20
  • 1.202nd half conceded / match0.40
  • 40%Leading at half-time40%
  • 40%1st half over 0.560%
  • 0%1st half over 1.520%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 20%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Sagan Tosu at home, Kataller Toyama away, this season.

Goals

Sagan TosuKataller Toyama
  • 1.40Scored / match1.80
  • 1.20Conceded / match0.60
  • 2.60Match total / match2.40
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 40%Scored 2+60%
  • 40%Conceded 1+40%
  • 40%Conceded 2+20%
  • 80%Match over 1.580%
  • 40%Match over 2.540%
  • 40%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for J2 League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.