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Sanfrecce Hiroshima v V-Varen Nagasaki, J1 League, Sun, 9 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 34. Sun, 9 May 2027

Sanfrecce HiroshimaHome
vKick-off 09:00 UTC
V-Varen NagasakiAway
WLWWWLeague form, oldest to newestDLWDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 4 scored home results and V-Varen Nagasaki 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches); V-Varen Nagasaki away: 0.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Sanfrecce Hiroshima scored 3.25 per home match (4 measured matches); V-Varen Nagasaki scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.46 per club appearance across 180 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 8 pooled club appearances (62.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 2 wins; V-Varen Nagasaki: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 90 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3.21
Expected goals, V-Varen Nagasaki
0.52
Most likely score
3-0 (13%)
Three or more goals
71%
Both clubs score
39%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score at least once
96%
V-Varen Nagasaki score at least once
40%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win–
Draw–
V-Varen Nagasaki win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals, columns are V-Varen Nagasaki goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
213%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
313%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
411%6%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
57%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
64%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
72%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.34 goals).

Sample. Sanfrecce Hiroshima 9 matches, V-Varen Nagasaki 9, the league 90, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.3%21.7%
2.553.3%46.7%
3.531.5%68.5%
4.518.5%81.5%

First-half goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.4%32.6%
1.535.9%64.1%
2.512.0%88.0%
3.52.2%97.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins
0
Draws
0
V-Varen Nagasaki wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
4 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheets
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Sanfrecce Hiroshima v V-Varen NagasakiSat, 11 Aug 2018 · J1 League 20182–0
  2. V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce HiroshimaSat, 28 Apr 2018 · J1 League 20180–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at homeWDWWWW
V-Varen Nagasaki awayLLWLDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home, V-Varen Nagasaki away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 31%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home, V-Varen Nagasaki away
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (home)V-Varen Nagasaki (away)
2Position14
WDWWLast 5, oldest to newestLLLD
4Played4
2.50Points per match0.25
75%Win %0%
3.25Scored / match1.00
0.50Conceded / match2.25
3.75Avg total goals3.25
50%Both scored75%
50%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score25%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Sanfrecce HiroshimaV-Varen Nagasaki
  • 1.251st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 2.002nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match1.25
  • 75%Leading at half-time0%
  • 75%1st half over 0.575%
  • 25%1st half over 1.525%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 75%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 50%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home, V-Varen Nagasaki away, this season.

Goals

Sanfrecce HiroshimaV-Varen Nagasaki
  • 3.25Scored / match1.00
  • 0.50Conceded / match2.25
  • 3.75Match total / match3.25
  • 100%Scored 1+75%
  • 75%Scored 2+25%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 75%Match over 2.550%
  • 25%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for J1 League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.