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SC Paderborn 07 II U21 v Sportfreunde Lotte, Regionalliga West, Sat, 10 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 29. Sat, 10 Apr 2027

SC Paderborn 07 II U21Home
vKick-off 12:00 UTC
Sportfreunde LotteAway
LDWLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, SC Paderborn 07 II U21 have 5 scored home results and Sportfreunde Lotte 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: SC Paderborn 07 II U21 at home: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Sportfreunde Lotte away: 0.50 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. SC Paderborn 07 II U21 scored 2.00 per home match (5 measured matches); Sportfreunde Lotte scored 1.17 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.75 per club appearance across 202 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 9 of 11 pooled club appearances (81.8%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. SC Paderborn 07 II U21: 0 wins; Sportfreunde Lotte: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 101 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, SC Paderborn 07 II U21
1.58
Expected goals, Sportfreunde Lotte
0.76
Most likely score
1-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
42%
Both clubs score
42%
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 score at least once
79%
Sportfreunde Lotte score at least once
53%
Season sample
12 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

SC Paderborn 07 II U21 win–
Draw–
Sportfreunde Lotte win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are SC Paderborn 07 II U21 goals, columns are Sportfreunde Lotte goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%12%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
212%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
36%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.67 goals) and away average (1.83 goals).

Sample. SC Paderborn 07 II U21 12 matches, Sportfreunde Lotte 12, the league 101, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 25 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 101 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.587.4%12.6%
2.569.9%30.1%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.529.1%70.9%

First-half goals · 101 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.575.7%24.3%
1.555.3%44.7%
2.518.4%81.6%
3.58.7%91.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 wins
0
Draws
1
Sportfreunde Lotte wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Sportfreunde Lotte clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Sportfreunde Lotte v SC Paderborn 07 II U21Sat, 10 Oct 2026 · Regionalliga West 2026-271–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 at homeLDLWD
Sportfreunde Lotte awayDDDLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 at home, Sportfreunde Lotte away
  • 83%
    Both teams scored
    League 72%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 88%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 70%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 55%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 49%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 28%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 29%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 3.50
    5 + 6 matches
  • 57%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 76%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 55%
    5 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 at home, Sportfreunde Lotte away
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 (home)Sportfreunde Lotte (away)
12Position18
LDLWDLast 5, oldest to newestDDLLL
5Played6
1.00Points per match0.50
20%Win %0%
2.00Scored / match1.17
2.20Conceded / match1.67
4.20Avg total goals2.83
100%Both scored67%
0%Clean sheets17%
0%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

SC Paderborn 07 II U21Sportfreunde Lotte
  • 0.201st half scored / match0.17
  • 1.401st half conceded / match0.33
  • 1.802nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match1.33
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 80%1st half over 0.533%
  • 60%1st half over 1.517%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 0%Scored in both halves17%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

SC Paderborn 07 II U21 at home, Sportfreunde Lotte away, this season.

Goals

SC Paderborn 07 II U21Sportfreunde Lotte
  • 2.00Scored / match1.17
  • 2.20Conceded / match1.67
  • 4.20Match total / match2.83
  • 100%Scored 1+67%
  • 40%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+83%
  • 60%Conceded 2+67%
  • 100%Match over 1.567%
  • 60%Match over 2.567%
  • 60%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Regionalliga West matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.