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Sheffield Weds v Luton, EFL League One, Sat, 19 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 20. Sat, 19 Dec 2026

Sheffield WedsHome
vKick-off 12:30 UTC
LutonAway
WWDDDLeague form, oldest to newestWDLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Hillsborough Stadium. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Sheffield Weds have 4 scored home results and Luton 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Sheffield Weds at home: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Luton away: 1.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Sheffield Weds scored 1.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Luton scored 2.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 8 pooled club appearances (62.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Sheffield Weds: 1 wins; Luton: 4 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Sheffield Weds at home and Luton away.

Sheffield Weds at home

xG 1.86
  • Shots per match15.0
  • On target per match5.8
  • Goals per match1.8

Luton away

xG 1.26
  • Shots per match11.3
  • On target per match3.7
  • Goals per match2.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Sheffield Weds
2.51
Expected goals, Luton
1.35
Most likely score
2-1 (9%)
Three or more goals
74%
Both clubs score
68%
Sheffield Weds score at least once
92%
Luton score at least once
74%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Sheffield Weds win–
Draw–
Luton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Sheffield Weds goals, columns are Luton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
15%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%9%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
36%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.40 goals).

Sample. Sheffield Weds 8 matches, Luton 8, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.534.6%65.4%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.564.4%35.6%
1.534.6%65.4%
2.516.3%83.7%
3.51.9%98.1%

Corners · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.571.7%28.3%
9.557.6%42.4%
10.545.7%54.3%

Yellow + red card events · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.589.1%10.9%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.532.6%67.4%
5.518.5%81.5%
6.59.8%90.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Sheffield Weds wins
1
Draws
4
Luton wins
Goals / meeting
2.17
13 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
33%
2 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Sheffield Weds clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Luton clean sheets
33%
2 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.00
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.00
6 with card data
  1. Sheffield Weds v LutonSat, 1 Feb 2025 · EFL Championship 2024-251–1HT 0–1
  2. Luton v Sheffield WedsSat, 21 Sept 2024 · EFL Championship 2024-252–1HT 0–0
  3. Luton v Sheffield WedsSat, 27 Feb 2021 · EFL Championship 2020-213–2HT 0–2
  4. Sheffield Weds v LutonSat, 24 Oct 2020 · EFL Championship 2020-210–1HT 0–0
  5. Luton v Sheffield WedsWed, 12 Feb 2020 · EFL Championship 2019-201–0HT 1–0
  6. Sheffield Weds v LutonTue, 20 Aug 2019 · EFL Championship 2019-201–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Sheffield Weds at homeLLWDDW
Luton awayWLLLDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Sheffield Weds at home, Luton away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 4.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 10.1
    Corners per match
    League 10.72
    4 + 3 matches
  • 54%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 72%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 58%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.4
    Cards per match
    League 3.78
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 46%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 32%
    4 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Sheffield Weds at home, Luton away
Sheffield Weds (home)Luton (away)
7Position13
LWDDLast 5, oldest to newestWLLW
4Played4
1.25Points per match1.50
25%Win %50%
1.75Scored / match2.75
0.75Conceded / match2.75
2.50Avg total goals5.50
25%Both scored100%
50%Clean sheets0%
75%Failed to score0%
1.86xG for1.26
1.25xG against1.47

Half by half

Sheffield WedsLuton
  • 0.751st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.75
  • 1.002nd half scored / match2.00
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 25%Leading at half-time25%
  • 25%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 25%1st half over 1.575%
  • 50%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 25%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Sheffield Weds at home, Luton away, this season.

Goals

Sheffield WedsLuton
  • 1.75Scored / match2.75
  • 0.75Conceded / match2.75
  • 2.50Match total / match5.50
  • 25%Scored 1+100%
  • 25%Scored 2+75%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 25%Conceded 2+75%
  • 25%Match over 1.5100%
  • 25%Match over 2.5100%
  • 25%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

Sheffield WedsLuton
  • 15.00Shots for11.33
  • 12.00Shots against15.67
  • 5.75On target for3.67
  • 2.50On target against4.67
  • 12%Shot conversion21%
  • 1.86xG for1.26
  • 1.25xG against1.47

Corners

Sheffield WedsLuton
  • 6.25Corners for4.33
  • 6.00Corners against3.67
  • 12.25Match total8.00
  • 100%Over 7.533%
  • 75%Over 8.533%
  • 50%Over 9.533%
  • 50%Over 10.533%
  • 50%Over 11.50%

Cards

Sheffield WedsLuton
  • 1.75Cards for2.00
  • 1.75Cards against3.33
  • 3.50Match total5.33
  • 75%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.567%
  • 25%Over 4.567%
  • 0%Over 5.567%
  • 11.25Fouls committed11.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Cambridge9316
6Reading91115
7Sheffield Weds8715
8Oxford7714
9Stevenage8412
11AFC Wimbledon9-312
12Leyton Orient9211
13Luton8111
14Mansfield8-211
15Wycombe9-610
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League One matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.