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Sheffield Weds v Notts County, EFL League One, Tue, 19 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 26. Tue, 19 Jan 2027

Sheffield WedsHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
Notts CountyAway
WWDDDLeague form, oldest to newestDDLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Hillsborough Stadium. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Sheffield Weds have 4 scored home results and Notts County 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Sheffield Weds at home: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Notts County away: 0.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Sheffield Weds scored 1.75 per home match (4 measured matches); Notts County scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Sheffield Weds at home and Notts County away.

Sheffield Weds at home

xG 1.86
  • Shots per match15.0
  • On target per match5.8
  • Goals per match1.8

Notts County away

xG 0.87
  • Shots per match10.3
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Sheffield Weds
1.84
Expected goals, Notts County
0.67
Most likely score
1-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
46%
Both clubs score
41%
Sheffield Weds score at least once
84%
Notts County score at least once
49%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Sheffield Weds win–
Draw–
Notts County win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Sheffield Weds goals, columns are Notts County goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
214%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
38%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.40 goals).

Sample. Sheffield Weds 8 matches, Notts County 8, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.534.6%65.4%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.564.4%35.6%
1.534.6%65.4%
2.516.3%83.7%
3.51.9%98.1%

Corners · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.571.7%28.3%
9.557.6%42.4%
10.545.7%54.3%

Yellow + red card events · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.589.1%10.9%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.532.6%67.4%
5.518.5%81.5%
6.59.8%90.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Sheffield Weds at homeLLWDDW
Notts County awayWDDDDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Sheffield Weds at home, Notts County away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 11.3
    Corners per match
    League 10.72
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 72%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 58%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 4.1
    Cards per match
    League 3.78
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 32%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Sheffield Weds at home, Notts County away
Sheffield Weds (home)Notts County (away)
7Position22
LWDDLast 5, oldest to newestDDDL
4Played4
1.25Points per match0.75
25%Win %0%
1.75Scored / match1.00
0.75Conceded / match1.50
2.50Avg total goals2.50
25%Both scored75%
50%Clean sheets0%
75%Failed to score25%
1.86xG for0.87
1.25xG against1.77

Half by half

Sheffield WedsNotts County
  • 0.751st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.75
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match0.75
  • 25%Leading at half-time0%
  • 25%1st half over 0.575%
  • 25%1st half over 1.550%
  • 50%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 25%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Sheffield Weds at home, Notts County away, this season.

Goals

Sheffield WedsNotts County
  • 1.75Scored / match1.00
  • 0.75Conceded / match1.50
  • 2.50Match total / match2.50
  • 25%Scored 1+75%
  • 25%Scored 2+25%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 25%Conceded 2+50%
  • 25%Match over 1.5100%
  • 25%Match over 2.525%
  • 25%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

Sheffield WedsNotts County
  • 15.00Shots for10.25
  • 12.00Shots against15.75
  • 5.75On target for3.00
  • 2.50On target against5.00
  • 12%Shot conversion10%
  • 1.86xG for0.87
  • 1.25xG against1.77

Corners

Sheffield WedsNotts County
  • 6.25Corners for4.00
  • 6.00Corners against6.25
  • 12.25Match total10.25
  • 100%Over 7.575%
  • 75%Over 8.575%
  • 50%Over 9.575%
  • 50%Over 10.550%
  • 50%Over 11.525%

Cards

Sheffield WedsNotts County
  • 1.75Cards for2.25
  • 1.75Cards against2.50
  • 3.50Match total4.75
  • 75%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.550%
  • 25%Over 4.550%
  • 0%Over 5.525%
  • 11.25Fouls committed14.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Cambridge9316
6Reading91115
7Sheffield Weds8715
8Oxford7714
9Stevenage8412
20Peterboro9-78
21Bromley8-118
22Notts County8-37
23Milton Keynes Dons8-66
24Wigan8-84
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League One matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.