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Shimizu S-Pulse v Cerezo Osaka, J1 League, Sat, 15 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 35. Sat, 15 May 2027

Shimizu S-PulseHome
vKick-off 09:00 UTC
Cerezo OsakaAway
DLWWWLeague form, oldest to newestWDLDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Shimizu S-Pulse have 5 scored home results and Cerezo Osaka 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Shimizu S-Pulse at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Cerezo Osaka away: 0.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Shimizu S-Pulse scored 0.80 per home match (5 measured matches); Cerezo Osaka scored 0.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.46 per club appearance across 180 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 9 pooled club appearances (44.4%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Shimizu S-Pulse: 2 wins; Cerezo Osaka: 7 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 90 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Shimizu S-Pulse
0.88
Expected goals, Cerezo Osaka
0.49
Most likely score
0-0 (25%)
Three or more goals
16%
Both clubs score
23%
Shimizu S-Pulse score at least once
58%
Cerezo Osaka score at least once
39%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Shimizu S-Pulse win–
Draw–
Cerezo Osaka win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Shimizu S-Pulse goals, columns are Cerezo Osaka goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
025%13%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
122%11%3%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.34 goals).

Sample. Shimizu S-Pulse 9 matches, Cerezo Osaka 9, the league 90, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.3%21.7%
2.553.3%46.7%
3.531.5%68.5%
4.518.5%81.5%

First-half goals · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.4%32.6%
1.535.9%64.1%
2.512.0%88.0%
3.52.2%97.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Shimizu S-Pulse wins
1
Draws
7
Cerezo Osaka wins
Goals / meeting
3.30
33 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheets
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Cerezo Osaka clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Cerezo Osaka v Shimizu S-PulseSat, 22 Aug 2026 · J1 League 2026-271–0HT 0–0
  2. Shimizu S-Pulse v Cerezo OsakaSun, 9 Nov 2025 · J1 League 20251–4
  3. Cerezo Osaka v Shimizu S-PulseSun, 1 Jun 2025 · J1 League 20254–2
  4. Cerezo Osaka v Shimizu S-PulseSun, 26 Jun 2022 · J1 League 20221–1
  5. Shimizu S-Pulse v Cerezo OsakaSat, 12 Mar 2022 · J1 League 20221–3
  6. Shimizu S-Pulse v Cerezo OsakaSat, 4 Dec 2021 · J1 League 20212–1
  7. Cerezo Osaka v Shimizu S-PulseWed, 10 Mar 2021 · J1 League 20212–1
  8. Shimizu S-Pulse v Cerezo OsakaSat, 14 Nov 2020 · J1 League 20203–1
  9. Cerezo Osaka v Shimizu S-PulseWed, 8 Jul 2020 · J1 League 20202–0
  10. Cerezo Osaka v Shimizu S-PulseSat, 30 Nov 2019 · J1 League 20192–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Shimizu S-PulseLWWWDW
Cerezo OsakaDLDWWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Shimizu S-Pulse at home, Cerezo Osaka away
  • 45%
    Both teams scored
    League 59%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 58%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 35%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 31%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    5 + 4 matches
  • 48%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 36%
    5 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Shimizu S-Pulse at home, Cerezo Osaka away
Shimizu S-Pulse (home)Cerezo Osaka (away)
10Position12
LLDWWLast 5, oldest to newestLLLD
5Played4
1.40Points per match0.25
40%Win %0%
0.80Scored / match0.50
0.80Conceded / match2.75
1.60Avg total goals3.25
40%Both scored50%
20%Clean sheets0%
40%Failed to score50%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Shimizu S-PulseCerezo Osaka
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.201st half conceded / match1.50
  • 0.802nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match1.25
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 20%1st half over 0.575%
  • 0%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.525%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Shimizu S-Pulse at home, Cerezo Osaka away, this season.

Goals

Shimizu S-PulseCerezo Osaka
  • 0.80Scored / match0.50
  • 0.80Conceded / match2.75
  • 1.60Match total / match3.25
  • 60%Scored 1+50%
  • 20%Scored 2+0%
  • 80%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+50%
  • 40%Match over 1.575%
  • 20%Match over 2.550%
  • 0%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for J1 League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.