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Spalding United v Chorley, National League North, Sat, 23 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 28. Sat, 23 Jan 2027

Spalding UnitedHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
ChorleyAway
WWWLLLeague form, oldest to newestLWLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Spalding United have 5 scored home results and Chorley 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Spalding United at home: 2.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Chorley away: 0.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Spalding United scored 1.40 per home match (5 measured matches); Chorley scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.39 per club appearance across 266 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 10 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Spalding United: 0 wins; Chorley: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 133 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Spalding United
1.77
Expected goals, Chorley
0.80
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
47%
Both clubs score
45%
Spalding United score at least once
83%
Chorley score at least once
55%
Season sample
11 and 11 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Spalding United win–
Draw–
Chorley win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Spalding United goals, columns are Chorley goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%11%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
212%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
37%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
43%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.63 goals) and away average (1.14 goals).

Sample. Spalding United 11 matches, Chorley 11, the league 133, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.6%24.4%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.570.4%29.6%
1.532.6%67.4%
2.512.6%87.4%
3.53.7%96.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Spalding United wins
0
Draws
1
Chorley wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Spalding United clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Chorley clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Chorley v Spalding UnitedSat, 26 Sept 2026 · National League North 2026-272–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Spalding United at homeLDWWWW
Chorley awayWDLLWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 59%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 95%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 82%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 55%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 23%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 5%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.77
    11 + 11 matches
  • 64%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    11 + 11 matches
  • 23%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 32%
    11 + 11 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
Spalding UnitedChorley
9Position10
WWWLLLast 5, oldest to newestLWLWW
11Played11
1.55Points per match1.55
45%Win %45%
1.27Scored / match1.64
0.82Conceded / match1.64
2.09Avg total goals3.27
46%Both scored73%
27%Clean sheets9%
36%Failed to score18%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Spalding UnitedChorley
  • 0.361st half scored / match0.73
  • 0.271st half conceded / match0.45
  • 0.912nd half scored / match0.91
  • 0.552nd half conceded / match1.18
  • 18%Leading at half-time45%
  • 46%1st half over 0.582%
  • 18%1st half over 1.527%
  • 82%2nd half over 0.591%
  • 46%2nd half over 1.573%
  • 27%Scored in both halves18%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

Spalding UnitedChorley
  • 1.27Scored / match1.64
  • 0.82Conceded / match1.64
  • 2.09Match total / match3.27
  • 64%Scored 1+82%
  • 46%Scored 2+55%
  • 73%Conceded 1+91%
  • 9%Conceded 2+55%
  • 64%Match over 1.5100%
  • 36%Match over 2.573%
  • 18%Match over 3.527%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
7Hebburn Town11-318
8Brackley Town12-618
9Spalding United11517
10Chorley11017
11Buxton FC11-116
12Bedford Town11-116
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League North matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.