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St Truiden v Oud-Heverlee Leuven, Belgian Pro League, Sun, 1 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 10. Sun, 1 Nov 2026

St TruidenHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenAway
WLWLLLeague form, oldest to newestLLLDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, St Truiden have 4 scored home results and Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: St Truiden at home: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Oud-Heverlee Leuven away: 0.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. St Truiden scored 1.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Oud-Heverlee Leuven scored 0.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.49 per club appearance across 136 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 7 pooled club appearances (28.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. St Truiden: 3 wins; Oud-Heverlee Leuven: 3 wins; draws: 4.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, St Truiden at home and Oud-Heverlee Leuven away.

St Truiden at home

xG 1.81
  • Shots per match19.5
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match1.3

Oud-Heverlee Leuven away

xG 0.90
  • Shots per match11.3
  • On target per match2.7
  • Goals per match0.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 68 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, St Truiden
2.40
Expected goals, Oud-Heverlee Leuven
0.73
Most likely score
2-0 (13%)
Three or more goals
60%
Both clubs score
47%
St Truiden score at least once
91%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven score at least once
52%
Season sample
7 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

St Truiden win–
Draw–
Oud-Heverlee Leuven win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are St Truiden goals, columns are Oud-Heverlee Leuven goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
213%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
310%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.66 goals) and away average (1.31 goals).

Sample. St Truiden 7 matches, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 7, the league 68, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.6%21.4%
2.561.4%38.6%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.517.1%82.9%

First-half goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.6%21.4%
1.540.0%60.0%
2.511.4%88.6%
3.54.3%95.7%

Corners · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.563.1%36.9%
9.549.2%50.8%
10.546.2%53.8%

Yellow + red card events · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.2%
1.575.4%24.6%
2.563.1%36.9%
3.543.1%56.9%
4.529.2%70.8%
5.520.0%80.0%
6.56.2%93.8%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
St Truiden wins
4
Draws
3
Oud-Heverlee Leuven wins
Goals / meeting
2.30
23 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
St Truiden clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Oud-Heverlee Leuven clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.40
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.80
10 with card data
  1. St Truiden v Oud-Heverlee LeuvenSun, 18 Jan 2026 · Belgian Pro League 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  2. Oud-Heverlee Leuven v St TruidenSun, 23 Nov 2025 · Belgian Pro League 2025-261–2HT 1–2
  3. Oud-Heverlee Leuven v St TruidenSun, 16 Mar 2025 · Belgian Pro League 2024-253–2HT 1–1
  4. St Truiden v Oud-Heverlee LeuvenSun, 15 Sept 2024 · Belgian Pro League 2024-252–1HT 1–0
  5. St Truiden v Oud-Heverlee LeuvenFri, 17 May 2024 · Belgian Pro League 2023-241–1HT 0–0
  6. Oud-Heverlee Leuven v St TruidenSat, 20 Apr 2024 · Belgian Pro League 2023-241–0HT 0–0
  7. St Truiden v Oud-Heverlee LeuvenSat, 9 Dec 2023 · Belgian Pro League 2023-241–1HT 1–1
  8. Oud-Heverlee Leuven v St TruidenSun, 22 Oct 2023 · Belgian Pro League 2023-244–0HT 2–0
  9. Oud-Heverlee Leuven v St TruidenSat, 28 Jan 2023 · Belgian Pro League 2022-231–1HT 0–1
  10. St Truiden v Oud-Heverlee LeuvenSat, 22 Oct 2022 · Belgian Pro League 2022-230–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
St Truiden at homeWDWLWL
Oud-Heverlee Leuven awayDLDLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
St Truiden at home, Oud-Heverlee Leuven away
  • 29%
    Both teams scored
    League 41%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 29%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.97
    4 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 9.9
    Corners per match
    League 9.95
    4 + 3 matches
  • 58%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 63%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 46%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 49%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 46%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 3.2
    Cards per match
    League 3.37
    4 + 3 matches
  • 46%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 43%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 13%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 29%
    4 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
St Truiden at home, Oud-Heverlee Leuven away
St Truiden (home)Oud-Heverlee Leuven (away)
12Position14
DLWLLast 5, oldest to newestLLL
4Played3
1.00Points per match0.00
25%Win %0%
1.25Scored / match0.33
1.50Conceded / match2.33
2.75Avg total goals2.67
25%Both scored33%
25%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score67%
1.81xG for0.90
1.58xG against2.27

Half by half

St TruidenOud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 0.251st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.751st half conceded / match0.33
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match2.00
  • 25%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.533%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 25%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

St Truiden at home, Oud-Heverlee Leuven away, this season.

Goals

St TruidenOud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 1.25Scored / match0.33
  • 1.50Conceded / match2.33
  • 2.75Match total / match2.67
  • 50%Scored 1+33%
  • 25%Scored 2+0%
  • 75%Conceded 1+100%
  • 50%Conceded 2+67%
  • 100%Match over 1.567%
  • 50%Match over 2.567%
  • 25%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

St TruidenOud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 19.50Shots for11.33
  • 12.25Shots against17.33
  • 4.00On target for2.67
  • 4.25On target against6.00
  • 6%Shot conversion3%
  • 1.81xG for0.90
  • 1.58xG against2.27

Corners

St TruidenOud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 6.75Corners for2.67
  • 2.75Corners against7.67
  • 9.50Match total10.33
  • 75%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.567%
  • 25%Over 9.567%
  • 25%Over 10.567%
  • 25%Over 11.533%

Cards

St TruidenOud-Heverlee Leuven
  • 1.50Cards for2.33
  • 1.25Cards against1.33
  • 2.75Match total3.67
  • 50%Over 2.5100%
  • 25%Over 3.567%
  • 25%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 11.75Fouls committed10.67

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
10Westerlo7-110
11Beveren8-69
12St Truiden708
13Antwerp7-47
14Oud-Heverlee Leuven7-84
15RAAL La Louviere8-104
16Cercle Brugge8-73
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Belgian Pro League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.