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Stockton Town v Lancaster City, Northern Premier League, Premier Division, Sat, 20 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 33. Sat, 20 Feb 2027

Stockton TownHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Lancaster CityAway
DWLWDLeague form, oldest to newestLWWLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Stockton Town have 7 scored home results and Lancaster City 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Stockton Town at home: 1.57 points per match (7 measured matches); Lancaster City away: 1.43 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Stockton Town scored 1.57 per home match (7 measured matches); Lancaster City scored 1.71 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.65 per club appearance across 266 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 9 of 14 pooled club appearances (64.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 133 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Stockton Town
1.65
Expected goals, Lancaster City
1.48
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
60%
Both clubs score
62%
Stockton Town score at least once
81%
Lancaster City score at least once
77%
Season sample
13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Stockton Town win–
Draw–
Lancaster City win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Stockton Town goals, columns are Lancaster City goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%6%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
17%11%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%9%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.72 goals) and away average (1.59 goals).

Sample. Stockton Town 13 matches, Lancaster City 13, the league 133, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.5%18.5%
2.564.4%35.6%
3.540.7%59.3%
4.524.4%75.6%

First-half goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.1%25.9%
1.542.2%57.8%
2.515.6%84.4%
3.57.4%92.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Stockton Town at homeDWLWWD
Lancaster City awayLWWWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Stockton Town at home, Lancaster City away
  • 64%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 79%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 57%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 65%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 43%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 21%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 24%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 3.31
    7 + 7 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 43%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 42%
    7 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Stockton Town at home, Lancaster City away
Stockton Town (home)Lancaster City (away)
17Position12
WLWWDLast 5, oldest to newestWWWLD
7Played7
1.57Points per match1.43
43%Win %43%
1.57Scored / match1.71
1.14Conceded / match2.29
2.71Avg total goals4.00
43%Both scored86%
29%Clean sheets14%
29%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Stockton TownLancaster City
  • 0.711st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.141st half conceded / match0.86
  • 0.862nd half scored / match0.71
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match1.43
  • 29%Leading at half-time29%
  • 43%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 29%1st half over 1.557%
  • 86%2nd half over 0.586%
  • 43%2nd half over 1.571%
  • 29%Scored in both halves43%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Stockton Town at home, Lancaster City away, this season.

Goals

Stockton TownLancaster City
  • 1.57Scored / match1.71
  • 1.14Conceded / match2.29
  • 2.71Match total / match4.00
  • 71%Scored 1+100%
  • 43%Scored 2+57%
  • 71%Conceded 1+86%
  • 43%Conceded 2+57%
  • 71%Match over 1.586%
  • 29%Match over 2.586%
  • 29%Match over 3.557%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
10Warrington Town FC11419
11Alfreton Town FC13418
12Lancaster City13-817
13Hyde United FC13-1014
14Ashton United FC11113
15Quorn FC12-613
16Whitby Town12-1513
17Stockton Town13-712
18Leek Town12-111
19Emley AFC12-1310
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Northern Premier League, Premier Division matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.