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Stranraer v Forfar, Scottish League Two, Sat, 1 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 36. Sat, 1 May 2027

StranraerHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
ForfarAway
WWWWDLeague form, oldest to newestDLLWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Stranraer have 5 scored home results and Forfar 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Stranraer at home: 2.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Forfar away: 0.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Stranraer scored 1.20 per home match (5 measured matches); Forfar scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.70 per club appearance across 90 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Stranraer: 3 wins; Forfar: 6 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Stranraer at home and Forfar away.

Stranraer at home

  • Shots per match11.4
  • On target per match3.2
  • Goals per match1.2

Forfar away

  • Shots per match8.0
  • On target per match4.6
  • Goals per match0.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 45 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Stranraer
2.20
Expected goals, Forfar
0.42
Most likely score
2-0 (18%)
Three or more goals
49%
Both clubs score
31%
Stranraer score at least once
89%
Forfar score at least once
35%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Stranraer win–
Draw–
Forfar win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Stranraer goals, columns are Forfar goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
116%7%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
218%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
313%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
47%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (2.02 goals) and away average (1.38 goals).

Sample. Stranraer 9 matches, Forfar 9, the league 45, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.580.9%19.1%
2.561.7%38.3%
3.542.6%57.4%
4.527.7%72.3%

First-half goals · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.580.9%19.1%
1.540.4%59.6%
2.519.1%80.9%
3.58.5%91.5%

Corners · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.4%42.6%
9.553.2%46.8%
10.542.6%57.4%

Yellow + red card events · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.6%6.4%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.580.9%19.1%
3.557.4%42.6%
4.538.3%61.7%
5.525.5%74.5%
6.514.9%85.1%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Stranraer wins
1
Draws
6
Forfar wins
Goals / meeting
2.30
23 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Stranraer clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Forfar clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.60
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.40
10 with card data
  1. Forfar v StranraerSat, 5 Sept 2026 · Scottish League Two 2026-270–3HT 0–1
  2. Stranraer v ForfarSat, 18 Apr 2026 · Scottish League Two 2025-260–1HT 0–0
  3. Forfar v StranraerSat, 10 Jan 2026 · Scottish League Two 2025-262–2HT 1–1
  4. Stranraer v ForfarSat, 1 Nov 2025 · Scottish League Two 2025-263–1HT 1–0
  5. Forfar v StranraerSat, 2 Aug 2025 · Scottish League Two 2025-261–0HT 1–0
  6. Stranraer v ForfarSat, 22 Mar 2025 · Scottish League Two 2024-250–1HT 0–0
  7. Stranraer v ForfarTue, 4 Mar 2025 · Scottish League Two 2024-251–2HT 1–0
  8. Forfar v StranraerSat, 25 Jan 2025 · Scottish League Two 2024-250–1HT 0–0
  9. Forfar v StranraerSat, 21 Sept 2024 · Scottish League Two 2024-252–1HT 1–1
  10. Forfar v StranraerSat, 27 Apr 2024 · Scottish League Two 2023-242–0HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Stranraer at homeWWLWWD
Forfar awayDLDDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Stranraer at home, Forfar away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 98%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 42%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 27%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 3.40
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 82%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10.7
    Corners per match
    League 9.96
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 42%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 4.4
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 58%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Stranraer at home, Forfar away
Stranraer (home)Forfar (away)
1Position8
LWWWDLast 5, oldest to newestDLDLL
5Played5
2.00Points per match0.40
60%Win %0%
1.20Scored / match0.80
0.40Conceded / match2.40
1.60Avg total goals3.20
20%Both scored80%
60%Clean sheets0%
40%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

StranraerForfar
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.201st half conceded / match1.20
  • 0.802nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.202nd half conceded / match1.20
  • 20%Leading at half-time20%
  • 40%1st half over 0.580%
  • 20%1st half over 1.560%
  • 60%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Stranraer at home, Forfar away, this season.

Goals

StranraerForfar
  • 1.20Scored / match0.80
  • 0.40Conceded / match2.40
  • 1.60Match total / match3.20
  • 60%Scored 1+80%
  • 40%Scored 2+0%
  • 40%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+60%
  • 40%Match over 1.5100%
  • 20%Match over 2.560%
  • 20%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

StranraerForfar
  • 11.40Shots for8.00
  • 10.20Shots against15.20
  • 3.20On target for4.60
  • 3.00On target against5.80
  • 11%Shot conversion10%

Corners

StranraerForfar
  • 6.60Corners for4.40
  • 4.60Corners against5.80
  • 11.20Match total10.20
  • 80%Over 7.580%
  • 80%Over 8.540%
  • 80%Over 9.540%
  • 80%Over 10.520%
  • 60%Over 11.520%

Cards

StranraerForfar
  • 2.00Cards for2.00
  • 3.00Cards against1.80
  • 5.00Match total3.80
  • 100%Over 2.580%
  • 80%Over 3.540%
  • 60%Over 4.540%
  • 20%Over 5.520%
  • 12.20Fouls committed12.20

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Stranraer9917
2Clyde9517
3Edinburgh City9415
6Kelty Hearts9-512
7Dumbarton9-512
8Forfar9-611
9Annan Athletic9-29
10Stirling9-118
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Scottish League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.