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Sudtirol v Cesena, Serie B, Sat, 31 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 10. Sat, 31 Oct 2026

SudtirolHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
CesenaAway
DWDWDLeague form, oldest to newestWDDDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Druso. Photo: Boboseiptu, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Sudtirol have 4 scored home results and Cesena 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Sudtirol at home: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Cesena away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Sudtirol scored 1.00 per home match (4 measured matches); Cesena scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 114 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 7 pooled club appearances (42.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 4. Sudtirol: 0 wins; Cesena: 2 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Sudtirol at home and Cesena away.

Sudtirol at home

xG 0.72
  • Shots per match9.3
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Cesena away

xG 0.93
  • Shots per match12.5
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 57 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Sudtirol
1.62
Expected goals, Cesena
0.41
Most likely score
1-0 (21%)
Three or more goals
33%
Both clubs score
27%
Sudtirol score at least once
80%
Cesena score at least once
34%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Sudtirol win–
Draw–
Cesena win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Sudtirol goals, columns are Cesena goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
013%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
121%9%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
217%7%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.40 goals) and away average (1.23 goals).

Sample. Sudtirol 6 matches, Cesena 6, the league 57, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.6%25.4%
2.552.5%47.5%
3.527.1%72.9%
4.513.6%86.4%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.0%39.0%
1.523.7%76.3%
2.510.2%89.8%
3.53.4%96.6%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.7%42.3%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.580.8%19.2%
3.565.4%34.6%
4.542.3%57.7%
5.519.2%80.8%
6.515.4%84.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

4 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Sudtirol wins
2
Draws
2
Cesena wins
Goals / meeting
1.50
6 goals in 4 meetings
Both scored
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Sudtirol clean sheets
0%
0 of 4 meetings
Cesena clean sheets
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.25
4 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.00
4 with card data
  1. Cesena v SudtirolMon, 6 Apr 2026 · Serie B 2025-261–1HT 1–1
  2. Sudtirol v CesenaSat, 25 Oct 2025 · Serie B 2025-260–1HT 0–1
  3. Sudtirol v CesenaSat, 5 Apr 2025 · Serie B 2024-251–1HT 1–0
  4. Cesena v SudtirolSun, 3 Nov 2024 · Serie B 2024-251–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Sudtirol at homeLDWWDD
Cesena awayDLWDWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Sudtirol at home, Cesena away
  • 46%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 1.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.63
    4 + 3 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 61%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 8.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.78
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 3.1
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 66%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 42%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Sudtirol at home, Cesena away
Sudtirol (home)Cesena (away)
2Position10
WWDDLast 5, oldest to newestWDL
4Played3
2.00Points per match1.33
50%Win %33%
1.00Scored / match1.00
0.25Conceded / match1.33
1.25Avg total goals2.33
25%Both scored67%
75%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score33%
0.72xG for0.93
0.72xG against0.96

Half by half

SudtirolCesena
  • 0.251st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.752nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.252nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 25%Leading at half-time67%
  • 25%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 0%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Sudtirol at home, Cesena away, this season.

Goals

SudtirolCesena
  • 1.00Scored / match1.00
  • 0.25Conceded / match1.33
  • 1.25Match total / match2.33
  • 75%Scored 1+67%
  • 25%Scored 2+33%
  • 25%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+33%
  • 50%Match over 1.5100%
  • 0%Match over 2.533%
  • 0%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

SudtirolCesena
  • 9.33Shots for12.50
  • 15.00Shots against14.50
  • 3.00On target for3.00
  • 4.33On target against3.00
  • 14%Shot conversion12%
  • 0.72xG for0.93
  • 0.72xG against0.96

Corners

SudtirolCesena
  • 3.00Corners for2.00
  • 6.00Corners against6.00
  • 9.00Match total8.00
  • 67%Over 7.5100%
  • 33%Over 8.50%
  • 33%Over 9.50%
  • 33%Over 10.50%
  • 33%Over 11.50%

Cards

SudtirolCesena
  • 2.67Cards for2.00
  • 1.00Cards against0.50
  • 3.67Match total2.50
  • 67%Over 2.550%
  • 67%Over 3.50%
  • 33%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 13.00Fouls committed19.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Palermo6716
2Sudtirol6612
3Mantova5511
4Ascoli6311
8Benevento6310
9Verona537
10Cesena6-17
11Padova5-17
12Arezzo6-77
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie B matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.