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SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 v SC Paderborn 07 II U21, Regionalliga West, Sat, 8 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 32. Sat, 8 May 2027

SV Bergisch Gladbach 09Home
vKick-off 12:00 UTC
SC Paderborn 07 II U21Away
WLWLLLeague form, oldest to newestLDWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 have 6 scored home results and SC Paderborn 07 II U21 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 at home: 1.17 points per match (6 measured matches); SC Paderborn 07 II U21 away: 1.14 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 scored 1.33 per home match (6 measured matches); SC Paderborn 07 II U21 scored 1.29 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.75 per club appearance across 202 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 13 pooled club appearances (61.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 101 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, SV Bergisch Gladbach 09
1.74
Expected goals, SC Paderborn 07 II U21
2.12
Most likely score
1-2 (8%)
Three or more goals
74%
Both clubs score
73%
SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 score at least once
82%
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 score at least once
88%
Season sample
12 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 win–
Draw–
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 goals, columns are SC Paderborn 07 II U21 goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%4%5%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%
14%8%8%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%
23%7%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%
32%4%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.67 goals) and away average (1.83 goals).

Sample. SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 12 matches, SC Paderborn 07 II U21 12, the league 101, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 25 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 101 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.587.4%12.6%
2.569.9%30.1%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.529.1%70.9%

First-half goals · 101 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.575.7%24.3%
1.555.3%44.7%
2.518.4%81.6%
3.58.7%91.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 at homeDLLWWL
SC Paderborn 07 II U21 awayDDLWLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 at home, SC Paderborn 07 II U21 away
  • 62%
    Both teams scored
    League 72%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 77%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 88%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 62%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 70%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 62%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 49%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 24%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 29%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 3.50
    6 + 7 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 76%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 39%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 55%
    6 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 at home, SC Paderborn 07 II U21 away
SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 (home)SC Paderborn 07 II U21 (away)
8Position12
LLWWLLast 5, oldest to newestDLWLL
6Played7
1.17Points per match1.14
33%Win %29%
1.33Scored / match1.29
2.50Conceded / match1.71
3.83Avg total goals3.00
67%Both scored57%
17%Clean sheets0%
17%Failed to score43%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

SV Bergisch Gladbach 09SC Paderborn 07 II U21
  • 0.671st half scored / match0.43
  • 1.171st half conceded / match0.43
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.86
  • 1.332nd half conceded / match1.29
  • 33%Leading at half-time29%
  • 83%1st half over 0.543%
  • 50%1st half over 1.529%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.557%
  • 17%Scored in both halves14%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

SV Bergisch Gladbach 09 at home, SC Paderborn 07 II U21 away, this season.

Goals

SV Bergisch Gladbach 09SC Paderborn 07 II U21
  • 1.33Scored / match1.29
  • 2.50Conceded / match1.71
  • 3.83Match total / match3.00
  • 83%Scored 1+57%
  • 17%Scored 2+43%
  • 83%Conceded 1+100%
  • 67%Conceded 2+43%
  • 83%Match over 1.571%
  • 67%Match over 2.557%
  • 67%Match over 3.557%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Regionalliga West matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.