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Swindon v Gillingham, EFL League Two, Sat, 8 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 46. Sat, 8 May 2027

SwindonHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
GillinghamAway
LLDLLLeague form, oldest to newestWWLDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

County Ground. Photo: Swindonx at English Wikipedia, Public domain, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Swindon have 5 scored home results and Gillingham 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Swindon at home: 2.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Gillingham away: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Swindon scored 1.80 per home match (5 measured matches); Gillingham scored 1.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 10 pooled club appearances (70.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Swindon: 2 wins; Gillingham: 3 wins; draws: 5.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Swindon at home and Gillingham away.

Swindon at home

xG 1.95
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match5.0
  • Goals per match1.8

Gillingham away

xG 0.98
  • Shots per match9.5
  • On target per match2.5
  • Goals per match1.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Swindon
0.87
Expected goals, Gillingham
1.35
Most likely score
0-1 (15%)
Three or more goals
38%
Both clubs score
43%
Swindon score at least once
58%
Gillingham score at least once
74%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Swindon win–
Draw–
Gillingham win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Swindon goals, columns are Gillingham goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
011%15%10%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%13%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Swindon 10 matches, Gillingham 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Swindon wins
5
Draws
3
Gillingham wins
Goals / meeting
2.50
25 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Swindon clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Gillingham clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.50
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.00
10 with card data
  1. Gillingham v SwindonTue, 17 Mar 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-260–2HT 0–0
  2. Swindon v GillinghamThu, 1 Jan 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-262–0HT 0–0
  3. Gillingham v SwindonSat, 26 Apr 2025 · EFL League Two 2024-251–1HT 0–0
  4. Swindon v GillinghamSat, 26 Oct 2024 · EFL League Two 2024-251–1HT 0–1
  5. Gillingham v SwindonTue, 13 Feb 2024 · EFL League Two 2023-242–2HT 0–1
  6. Swindon v GillinghamTue, 24 Oct 2023 · EFL League Two 2023-240–1HT 0–1
  7. Swindon v GillinghamSat, 28 Jan 2023 · EFL League Two 2022-233–3HT 1–3
  8. Gillingham v SwindonSat, 3 Sept 2022 · EFL League Two 2022-230–0HT 0–0
  9. Swindon v GillinghamSat, 13 Mar 2021 · EFL League One 2020-211–3HT 1–0
  10. Gillingham v SwindonSat, 5 Dec 2020 · EFL League One 2020-212–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Swindon at homeWWLLDL
Gillingham awayLDDWLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Swindon at home, Gillingham away
  • 70%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10.5
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.9
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Swindon at home, Gillingham away
Swindon (home)Gillingham (away)
17Position4
WWWDLLast 5, oldest to newestDDWLW
5Played5
2.00Points per match1.60
60%Win %40%
1.80Scored / match1.80
1.00Conceded / match1.20
2.80Avg total goals3.00
80%Both scored60%
0%Clean sheets20%
20%Failed to score40%
1.95xG for0.98
1.19xG against1.40

Half by half

SwindonGillingham
  • 0.601st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.601st half conceded / match0.60
  • 1.202nd half scored / match1.40
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 20%Leading at half-time20%
  • 80%1st half over 0.580%
  • 40%1st half over 1.520%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 40%Scored in both halves40%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Swindon at home, Gillingham away, this season.

Goals

SwindonGillingham
  • 1.80Scored / match1.80
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.20
  • 2.80Match total / match3.00
  • 80%Scored 1+60%
  • 60%Scored 2+40%
  • 100%Conceded 1+80%
  • 0%Conceded 2+20%
  • 80%Match over 1.580%
  • 60%Match over 2.560%
  • 40%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

SwindonGillingham
  • 11.00Shots for9.50
  • 13.00Shots against16.25
  • 5.00On target for2.50
  • 4.50On target against5.00
  • 21%Shot conversion13%
  • 1.95xG for0.98
  • 1.19xG against1.40

Corners

SwindonGillingham
  • 5.50Corners for3.00
  • 5.50Corners against7.00
  • 11.00Match total10.00
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 75%Over 8.575%
  • 75%Over 9.575%
  • 50%Over 10.550%
  • 50%Over 11.550%

Cards

SwindonGillingham
  • 1.25Cards for2.25
  • 0.75Cards against1.50
  • 2.00Match total3.75
  • 0%Over 2.5100%
  • 0%Over 3.550%
  • 0%Over 4.525%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 7.75Fouls committed14.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Barnet8918
3Crewe10518
4Gillingham10516
5York9615
6Walsall9615
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
18Shrewsbury10-611
19Colchester9-310
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.